San Rafael 94901 · APN 011-245-41 · San Rafael
Since October 2024 within ½ mile: 10 homes completed, 11 permitted, 390 proposed or in review (30 of them deed-restricted affordable).
16 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
4 permits within ½ mile since October 2024
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Oct 30, 2026
$1,553,000
Benchmark range: $1,320,000 – $1,786,000
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
We don't have building permits for San Rafael, so we can't show what has been permitted nearby.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with San Rafael's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Oct 30, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of T4MS 50/70 as mixed use, from the code's name only
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
In "Entitled" for 2.3 yr (since Jul 23, 2024), with no new permit record in 2.3 yr. · 155 units
In "Entitled" for 6.3 yr (since Jun 30, 2020), with no new permit record in 6.3 yr. · 2 units
In "Entitled" for 6.1 yr (since Sep 10, 2020), with no new permit record in 6.1 yr. · 1 unit
In "Entitled" for 6.1 yr (since Sep 15, 2020), with no new permit record in 6.1 yr. · 1 unit
In "Entitled" for 6.1 yr (since Sep 29, 2020), with no new permit record in 6.1 yr. · 3 units
In "Entitled" for 6.1 yr (since Oct 9, 2020), with no new permit record in 6.1 yr. · 1 unit
Nearby permit (56b8d99a254a0412f75eed5b36fe9c6f9e7f168e): First appeared in published agency feed
Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby permit (648f5e6de81f82d2057e802f28255efc9ae0941c): First appeared in published agency feed
Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,376,137 in September 2025 to $1,394,155 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94901 (not a parcel appraisal)
71 units
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
3 units
Records span Dec 26, 2023 to Dec 3, 2025 (0 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
188 units · 19 affordable
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
131 units · 11 affordable
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94901 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,415,574 in September 2024 to $1,376,137 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94901 (not a parcel appraisal)
1 unit
Records span Apr 17, 2023 to Sep 18, 2025 (0 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
119 Erin Ct (Adu 119a) - Lot · 1 unit · $708,986 valuation
Records span Nov 28, 2023 to Aug 21, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
4 units
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full San Rafael development graph →Active in "Entitled" for 2.3 yr (first record Jul 23, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.3 yr. High-impact scale (155 housing units across 0 permits).
Active in "Entitled" for 3.5 yr (first record May 8, 2023) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.5 yr. High-impact scale (162 housing units, 13 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
Active in "Issued" for 4.5 yr (first record Apr 13, 2022) with no new permit activity recorded in 4.5 yr. High-impact scale (67 housing units, 66 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
Active in "Issued" for 16 mo (first record Jul 14, 2025) with no new permit activity recorded in 16 mo. High-impact scale (4 housing units across 0 permits).
Active in "Issued" for 2 yr (first record Oct 23, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 2 yr. High-impact scale (4 housing units across 0 permits).
Active in "Entitled" for 4.4 yr (first record May 23, 2022) with no new permit activity recorded in 4.4 yr. High-impact scale (4 housing units across 0 permits).
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94901
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($15,550/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($2,333/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Insurance & hazard context:
−$85,643/yr
Cash needed: $342,100
NOI: $8,713/yr
P&I: $7,863/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,125/mo rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,875/mo | −$7,496/mo | -26.3% | $13,338/mo | −$7,510/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,125/mo | −$7,137/mo | -25.0% | $12,346/mo | −$6,973/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,313/mo | −$6,930/mo | -24.3% | $12,059/mo | −$6,565/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
Entitled155 unitsJul 23, 2024 – Jul 23, 2024
We group related permits and State housing reports into projects. That grouping is our inference, not an official record.
No building permits are recorded for this parcel since 2016.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Oct 30, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
| Report year | Project / record | Type | Entitled | Permitted | Completed | Deed-restricted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | —(PLAN24-033) | 5+ · Renter | 155 (Jul 23, 2024) | — | — | — |
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Oct 26, 2026 · From San Rafael's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Oct 30, 2026
0.89 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
1515 4TH ST
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Oct 30, 2026
Search by parcel number 011-245-41. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 011-245-41 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.