Mill Valley 94941 · Muir Woods Park · APN 045-161-27 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned R1-B2 in Unincorporated Marin with likely ADU & SB 9 infill eligibility and mapped CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $2,179,000 ($1,918,000–$2,440,000).
Zoned R1-B2 supports ministerial ADU/JADU review plus SB 9 both two-unit development and ministerial urban lot split on a 13,112 sq ft lot. Local precedent is active with 1 ADU permit within ¼ mile over the last 36 months.
Source: Unincorporated Marin zoning · CA Gov. Code 66314 & 65852.21
On-parcel permit history is indexed through Aug 28, 2023, letting you verify roof, HVAC, electrical, or structural work against seller disclosures.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 2 homes completed, 1 permitted.
3 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
93 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
$2,179,000
Benchmark range: $1,918,000 – $2,440,000
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Closest lead: New home at 65 Ridge Ave (0.36 mi SE, applied). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Sale triggers reassessment to 1.00% base + ~0.15% voter debt (~$2,126/mo). Confirm exact Mello-Roos / CFD special assessments on the county tax bill.
Source: CA Const. Art. XIIIA (Prop 13) · County Tax Collector
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of R1-B2 as single-family residential, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Permit issued and active for 14.9 yr (first record Dec 27, 2011), with no completion or new permit record in 11.9 yr. · 1 unit · $350,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 11.8 yr (first record Jan 13, 2015), with no completion or new permit record in 11.8 yr. · $3,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 5.1 yr (since Oct 15, 2021), with no new permit record in 4.6 yr. · 1 unit · $182,750 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 4 yr (since Oct 27, 2022), with no new permit record in 4 yr. · 1 unit · $3,000,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 4.7 yr (first record Feb 22, 2022), with no completion or new permit record in 3.4 yr. · 1 unit
Permit issued and active for 4.6 yr (first record Apr 21, 2022), with no completion or new permit record in 2 yr. · 1 unit · $1,329,450 declared valuation
Nearby other (5 Ridge Ave): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B49007 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
50 Mountain Ln · 1 unit · $660,000 valuation
Records span Sep 23, 2022 to Oct 21, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,980,059 in September 2025 to $2,181,389 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94941 (not a parcel appraisal)
473 Panoramic Hwy (A D U 473a) · 1 unit
Records span Aug 21, 2025 to Nov 19, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94941 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,042,452 in September 2024 to $1,980,059 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94941 (not a parcel appraisal)
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
526 Panoramic Hwy · 1 unit · $1,329,450 valuation
Records span Apr 21, 2022 to Oct 25, 2024 (2 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94941 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,038,275 in September 2023 to $2,042,452 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94941 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94941 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,149,518 in September 2022 to $2,038,275 in September 2023.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94941 (not a parcel appraisal)
Roof replacement permit application filed (B35203)
Current status: Issued
T/O existing T&G roof and install new 4 ply T&G roof. Class A, 1900 sq ft. — ReRoofing; With Electronic Inspection · Declared valuation: $23,500 · Contractor: Larke Construction Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Roof replacement permit issued (B35203)
Recorded status: Issued
T/O existing T&G roof and install new 4 ply T&G roof. Class A, 1900 sq ft. — ReRoofing; With Electronic Inspection · Declared valuation: $23,500 · Contractor: Larke Construction Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
25 Palm Way · 1 unit
Records span Feb 22, 2022 to Jun 15, 2023 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
65 Ridge Ave · 1 unit · $3,000,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94941 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,944,714 in September 2021 to $2,149,518 in September 2022.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94941 (not a parcel appraisal)
49 Ridge Ave · 1 unit · $182,750 valuation
Records span Oct 15, 2021 to Apr 20, 2022 (2 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →In "Applied" for 4 yr (since Oct 27, 2022), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121). High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $3,000,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
Active in "Issued" for 4.6 yr (first record Apr 21, 2022) with no new permit activity recorded in 2 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $1,329,450 declared valuation across 2 permits).
In "Applied" for 5.1 yr (since Oct 15, 2021), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
Active in "Issued" for 14.9 yr (first record Dec 27, 2011) with no new permit activity recorded in 11.9 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 11.8 yr (first record Jan 13, 2015) with no new permit activity recorded in 11.8 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 4.7 yr (first record Feb 22, 2022) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.4 yr.
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larke Construction | Roof replacement | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $23,500 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Home Depot USA | Windows / doors / siding | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $19,101 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Haddon Heating And Cooling | HVAC / heat pump | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $15,857 | 0 |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94941
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($21,800/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($3,270/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$124,412/yr
Cash needed: $479,600
NOI: $7,868/yr
P&I: $11,023/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,950/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $3,634/mo | −$10,822/mo | -27.1% | $18,739/mo | −$10,863/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,950/mo | −$10,368/mo | -25.9% | $17,345/mo | −$10,185/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $4,187/mo | −$10,107/mo | -25.3% | $16,942/mo | −$9,669/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
T/O existing T&G roof and install new 4 ply T&G roof. Class A, 1900 sq ft. — ReRoofing; With Electronic Inspection
split system change out AFUE 96 SEER 16 duct work less than 40ft R6 — Replace Ductwork, Replace Mechanical Appliance
Install retrofit windows. Total 5 ( 2 bathroom,1kitchen, 1 laundry room, 1 office — Non-structural Door/Window Replacement
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
0.30 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
16 ST JUDE RD
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 045-161-27. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 045-161-27 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| Owner Builder Recent nearby: 50 Mountain Ln (Oct 21, 2026) | New garage / accessory structure | 27 in ½ mi | $3,528,800 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Owner Recent nearby: 526 Panoramic Hwy (Oct 25, 2024) | Remodel / interior alteration | 9 in ½ mi | $1,835,250 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Vida Building Recent nearby: 455 Panoramic Hwy (Nov 7, 2023) | Remodel / interior alteration | 2 in ½ mi | $668,420 | 3 vs 2 prior |
| D3 Consult Design Build Recent nearby: 5 Walsh Dr (Aug 12, 2019) | Remodel / interior alteration | 2 in ½ mi | $105,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Robert Federighi Recent nearby: 12 Dipsea Trl (Feb 24, 2021) | Addition (adds square footage) | 2 in ½ mi | $59,946 | 0 vs 3 prior |
| Oxbow Pool And Landscape Contractors Recent nearby: 471 Panoramic Hwy (May 12, 2021) | New garage / accessory structure | 1 in ½ mi | $2,000,000 | 0 vs 4 prior |
| Iris Landscaping Recent nearby: 14 Monte Cimas Ave (Jun 30, 2022) | New garage / accessory structure | 1 in ½ mi | $1,130,000 | 1 vs 0 prior |
| 316 |
| 103d |
| 160d |
| 249d |
| 440d |
| 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alteration | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Roof replacementOn this parcel | 3,663 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d |
| HVAC / heat pumpOn this parcel | 2,946 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.