6831 Aitken Dr

Oakland 94611 · Shepherd Canyon · APN 48D-7309-12 · Oakland

Property brief (PDF)Timeline ↓Calculator ↓Official records ↓

We don't have building permits for Oakland, so permit history and nearby activity are incomplete here. No city in Alameda County publishes its building permits as open data. New housing in every city comes from the state's Housing Element reports. Parcel, assessor, and record links still apply.

For saleLast soldEst. price

What's changing nearby

Since — within ½ mile: 5 homes completed, 5 permitted, 8 proposed or in review.

18 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.

No permit activity recorded within ½ mile.

Explore projects on the map →Explore sales & prices →

Estimated price, listing status & sales records

Benchmark valuation & transaction history

Estimated PriceZHVI + ACS + Permits

$1,986,000

Benchmark range: $1,748,000 – $2,224,000

Listing StatusOff Market

Not currently listed for sale

Compare nearby sales & prices on map →

Last Sold & Tax Roll

No deed price in open GIS feed

Verify on Assessor's office

How this estimated price is calculated (ZIP ZHVI + Neighborhood ACS + Permit Model)

Model monthly ownership cost ↓

1. Area home value baseline: 70% ZIP 94611 Zillow ZHVI ($1,409,497, September 2026) + 30% Shepherd Canyon ACS median ($1,374,292); $1,398,935
2. Parcel & lot adjustment (1.42×): 3–4 unit residential property (1.42× single-family baseline); +$587,553
3. Documented permitted improvements: No recent value-adding ADU, addition, or remodel permits recorded on this parcel; +$0

Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.

What could be built here

A screen, not a determination

ADU or junior ADU

Possible, with conditions

Zoned RH-4 (single-family residential): state law allows ADUs where homes are allowed.
We read RH-4 from the zoning code's name; we haven't checked it against Oakland's code text.
The assessor lists the lot as vacant: an ADU needs an existing or proposed main home.
Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone covers all of the lot: cities may limit ADUs here for fire safety and evacuation.

What we couldn't check (4)

Setbacks, height and size limits in the local ADU ordinance
Utility and sewer capacity, fire access
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

SB 9: two homes on the lot

Possible, with conditions

Zoned RH-4, a single-family residential zone.
We read RH-4 from the zoning code's name; we haven't checked it against Oakland's code text.
Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone (local responsibility area) covers all of the lot: SB 9 requires the project to meet the fire hazard mitigation standards.

What we couldn't check (6)

Whether a tenant lived there in the last 3 years, or the building was withdrawn from rent under the Ellis Act
Rent-controlled or deed-restricted affordable housing on the lot
Wetlands, habitat, farmland, hazardous waste sites and conservation easements
Local SB 9 standards (size, setbacks, parking)
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

SB 9: split into two lots

Possible, with conditions

Zoned RH-4, a single-family residential zone.
We read RH-4 from the zoning code's name; we haven't checked it against Oakland's code text.
The lot is 6,113 sq ft by the assessor, room for two lots of at least 1,200 sq ft, each at least 40% of the original.
Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone (local responsibility area) covers all of the lot: SB 9 requires the project to meet the fire hazard mitigation standards.

What we couldn't check (6)

Owner-occupancy: the applicant must sign an affidavit to live in one of the homes for 3 years
Whether the lot was created by an earlier SB 9 split, or the owner split an adjacent lot
Whether a tenant lived there in the last 3 years, or the building was withdrawn from rent under the Ellis Act
Wetlands, habitat, farmland, hazardous waste sites and conservation easements
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

Mapped hazards on this lot

Fire hazard severity zone: Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone (Local Responsibility Area), all of the lot · State map of Mar 24, 2025; takes effect when the city or county adopts it
FEMA flood zone: Zone X: minimal flood hazardFIRM panel 06001C0080G, effective August 3, 2009. Official flood map
Earthquake fault zone: Not in an Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zone

Built nearby: within ¼ mile since October 2023

We don't have building permits for Oakland, so we can't show what has been permitted nearby.

Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.

We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Oakland's planning department before relying on it.

Sources: City of Oakland Planning & Building, Zoning (base zones, effective 2024-12-17) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of RH-4 as single-family residential, from the code's name only

Property & area intelligence timeline

67 events · 40 slow/stalled projects

Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.

Slow-moving or stalled projects (40)

Active projects spending 12+ months pre-issuance, 24+ months under construction, or 6+ months without new records

Slow paceHillside SF on Downslope LotEntitled
On this parcel
In "Entitled" for 12 mo (since Nov 7, 2025), with no new permit record in 12 mo. · 1 unit
StalledNew homeIssued
0.47 mi SW
Permit issued and active for 8.4 yr (first record Jun 4, 2018), with no completion or new permit record in 8.4 yr. · 1 unit
StalledNew homeEntitled
410 ft NW
In "Entitled" for 8.4 yr (since Jun 8, 2018), with no new permit record in 8.4 yr. · 1 unit
StalledNew homeEntitled
520 ft SE
In "Entitled" for 8.4 yr (since Jun 18, 2018), with no new permit record in 8.4 yr. · 1 unit
StalledNew homeIssued
0.34 mi NW
Permit issued and active for 8.3 yr (first record Jul 12, 2018), with no completion or new permit record in 8.3 yr. · 1 unit
StalledNew homeIssued
520 ft SE
Permit issued and active for 8.2 yr (first record Aug 29, 2018), with no completion or new permit record in 8.2 yr. · 1 unit

20261 event

September 2026Market trend
ZIP 94611
ZIP 94611 typical home value: $1,409,497 (+5.6% year-over-year)
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,334,294 in September 2025 to $1,409,497 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94611 (not a parcel appraisal)

202514 events

Nov 7, 2025Planning entitlement
On this parcel
Planning entitlement approved for 1 housing unit (New Hillside SF on Downslope Lot)
Reported in 2025 Housing Element Annual Progress Report
ADU · Renter
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: parcel
Nov 7, 2025Planning entitlement
On this parcel
Planning entitlement approved for 1 housing unit (New Hillside SF on Downslope Lot)
Reported in 2025 Housing Element Annual Progress Report
SFD · Owner
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: parcel
Nov 7, 2025Nearby project · Entitled
0.24 mi NW
New home — Entitled
1 unit
⏱ Slow turnaround:In "Entitled" for 12 mo (since Nov 7, 2025), with no new permit record in 12 mo.
Source: Alameda County building permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
September 2025Market trend
ZIP 94611
ZIP 94611 typical home value: $1,334,294 (−6.6% year-over-year)
Annual ZIP 94611 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,429,269 in September 2024 to $1,334,294 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94611 (not a parcel appraisal)
Aug 19, 2025Nearby project · Issued
0.27 mi E
Cat 1 Sfd Adu — Issued
1 unit
Source: Alameda County building permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Jul 3, 2025Nearby project · Entitled
0.49 mi NW
single family dwelling on a vacant hillside property. (Project site is located next to the neighboring residence at 1801 Manzanita Dr). Related to Tree Permit T2100169. — Entitled
1 unit
⏱ Slow turnaround:In "Entitled" for 16 mo (since Jul 3, 2025), with no new permit record in 16 mo.
Source: Alameda County building permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
May 8, 2025Nearby project · Issued
0.34 mi S
Construction of new single-family residence with attached ADU-Cat II and attached garage. — Issued
1 unit
Source: Alameda County building permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Apr 29, 2025Nearby project · Issued
0.49 mi NW
New home — Issued
1 unit
Source: Alameda County building permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Apr 14, 2025Nearby project · Issued
0.48 mi SW
CAT 1 Accessory Dwelling Unit — Issued
1 unit
Source: Alameda County building permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Apr 3, 2025Nearby project · Finaled / completed
0.12 mi SW
ADU Cat#1 — Finaled / completed
1 unit
Records span Apr 8, 2022 to Apr 3, 2025 (0 permits).
Source: Alameda County building permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Mar 17, 2025Nearby project · Finaled / completed
0.41 mi W
Garage Conversion into CAT I A.D.U. and Primary residence addition and remodel — Finaled / completed
1 unit
Records span Mar 19, 2019 to Mar 17, 2025 (0 permits).
Source: Alameda County building permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Mar 14, 2025Nearby project · Issued
0.2 mi S
Completion for RBC1905298 - ADU at 6887 Exeter — Issued
1 unit
Source: Alameda County building permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Feb 14, 2025Nearby project · Finaled / completed
0.34 mi NW
Completion permit for RE1802845 & RB1704076 — Finaled / completed
1 unit
Source: Alameda County building permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Feb 4, 2025Nearby project · Entitled
0.46 mi SW
DRX - 369-square-foot JADU — Entitled
1 unit
⏱ Slow turnaround:In "Entitled" for 21 mo (since Feb 4, 2025), with no new permit record in 21 mo.
Source: Alameda County building permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)

Showing 15 of 67 timeline events

Recorded sales & deed transfers: California county recorders do not publish open bulk deed-transfer feeds without owner-PII restrictions, so individual sale deeds are not redistributed here. For official assessment roll and recorded transfer history in Oakland, inspect Assessor's office ↗.

Development graph & closer investigation

6 investigation leads

Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.

Explore full Oakland development graph →

Developments deserving closer investigation (6)

On this parcel & within ½ mile

New homeEntitledNo new record in 7 yr
270 ft N
Active in "Entitled" for 7 yr (first record Oct 18, 2019) with no new permit activity recorded in 7 yr.
New homeEntitledNo new record in 8.4 yr
410 ft NW
Active in "Entitled" for 8.4 yr (first record Jun 8, 2018) with no new permit activity recorded in 8.4 yr.
New homeEntitledNo new record in 6.7 yr
470 ft NE
Active in "Entitled" for 6.7 yr (first record Feb 7, 2020) with no new permit activity recorded in 6.7 yr.
New homeIssuedNo new record in 8.2 yr
520 ft SE
Active in "Issued" for 8.2 yr (first record Aug 29, 2018) with no new permit activity recorded in 8.2 yr.
New homeEntitledNo new record in 8.4 yr
520 ft SE
Active in "Entitled" for 8.4 yr (first record Jun 18, 2018) with no new permit activity recorded in 8.4 yr.
New homeIssuedNo new record in 4.9 yr
0.11 mi NW
Active in "Issued" for 4.9 yr (first record Dec 3, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 4.9 yr.

Ownership & rental scenario calculator

Prop 13 tax estimate & area benchmarks

Area rent & home-value benchmarks (kept separate from your assumptions)

Click any benchmark to pre-fill the calculator

HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94611

HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rent

Census ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):

Shepherd Canyon$3,500+

ZIP 94611$2,263±$126

Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)

ZIP & neighborhood medians

Zillow ZHVI · ZIP 94611(as of September 2026)Data provided by Zillow · typical mid-tier home value in ZIP

$1,409,497

ACS Median Home Value · Shepherd CanyonCensus ACS 2020–2024 owner-occupied self-reported median

$1,374,000±$63,900

ACS Median Home Value · ZIP 94611Census ACS 2020–2024 owner-occupied self-reported median

$1,526,000±$69,800

1. Purchase, financing & Prop 13 tax reassessment

Purchase price ($)Down payment (%)$397,000Interest rate (%)Loan termClosing costs (%)$39,700

Prop 13 post-purchase property tax estimate

$2,056/mo ($24,667/yr · 1.24%)

Under California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($19,850/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($4,367/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).

Voter bond rate (%)$4,367/yrDirect levies / Mello-Roos ($/yr)Check Assessor's office ↗

2. Your rent & operating assumptions

Monthly gross rent ($)Your assumptionVacancy allowance (%)−$146/moManagement (%)$222/moMaintenance (%)$146/moCapEx reserve (%)$146/moInsurance ($/mo)$3,300/yrHOA dues ($/mo)Owner utilities ($/mo)

Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:

Parcel intersects a mapped Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone (Local Responsibility Area) (local responsibility area). Properties in High or Very High fire hazard zones may require California FAIR Plan + difference-in-conditions (DIC) coverage; verify actual insurability and quotes early.

3. Scenario results (based on your assumptions)

Net monthly cash flow: −$10,104
Cash-on-cash return: -27.8%
Cap rate (Year 1 NOI): -0.04%
DSCR (NOI / debt): -0.01x
Break-even gross rent: $15,979/mo
Break-even vacancy: 0% (negative at full occ.)

Monthly cash-flow breakdown (Effective gross $2,779 − Operating $2,845 − Debt $10,037)

Gross scheduled rent$2,925

Vacancy allowance (5%)−$146

Effective gross income$2,779

Prop 13 property tax (1.24%)−$2,056

Property insurance−$275

Management (8%), maintenance (5%) & CapEx (5%)−$515

Net Operating Income (NOI)−$67

Mortgage principal & interest (1,588,000 loan)−$10,037

Net monthly cash flow−$10,104

4. Sensitivity & rent-stabilization ceiling (Oakland)

Scenario	Assumptions	Year 1 Rent	Year 1 Cash Flow	Cash-on-Cash	Break-Even Rent	Year 5 Cash Flow
Conservative	−8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth	$2,691/mo	−$10,440/mo	-28.7%	$17,264/mo	−$10,517/mo
Base (your inputs)	Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth	$2,925/mo	−$10,104/mo	-27.8%	$15,979/mo	−$10,015/mo
Optimistic (cap-limited)	+6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 3.0%/yr rent growth (capped by local ordinance ceiling of 3.0%/yr)	$3,101/mo	−$9,911/mo	-27.2%	$15,608/mo	−$9,797/mo

Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):

California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties. In Oakland: Oakland Rent Adjustment Program (OMC Ch. 8.22) — annual CPI adjustment (60% of CPI, capped at 3.0%) for covered pre-1983 multifamily units. Official program rules ↗

Common statutory exemption signals under AB 1482

Housing issued a certificate of occupancy within the last 15 years (rolling exemption under AB 1482).
Separately alienable single-family homes or condominiums not owned by a corporation, REIT, or LLC with a corporate member (when required statutory notice is in the lease).
Owner-occupied duplexes where the owner occupied one unit from the start of the tenancy.

Development projects on this parcel

Hillside SF on Downslope Lot
Entitled1 unitsNov 7, 2025 – Nov 7, 2025

We group related permits and State housing reports into projects. That grouping is our inference, not an official record.

Permit history on this parcel

0 records

No building permits are recorded for this parcel since 2016.

Housing activity reported to the State

Report year	Project / record	Type	Entitled	Permitted	Completed	Deed-restricted
2025	New Hillside SF on Downslope Lot(PLN25046)	ADU · Renter	1 (Nov 7, 2025)	—	—	—
2025	New Hillside SF on Downslope Lot(PLN25046)	SFD · Owner	1 (Nov 7, 2025)	—	—	—

Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Oct 26, 2026 · From Oakland's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.

Zoning & planning

Zoning: RH-4 (Oakland)

Source: City of Oakland Planning & Building, Zoning (base zones, effective 2024-12-17) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Oct 26, 2026

Parcel facts

Lot size: 6,113 sq ft
Tax rate area: 17
Assessor land use: Vacant residential land, zoned 4 units or less
Addresses on parcel: 1

Source: Alameda County Assessor / Information Technology Department, Parcel Boundaries · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Oct 26, 2026

Official records

Assessor's office
Look up assessed values and parcel maps by parcel number 48D-7309-12. Assessed value is not market value.
Property tax bill
Search by parcel number 48D-7309-12 (Alameda County Treasurer-Tax Collector)
FEMA Flood Map Service Center
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.

This site does not show owner names.

Scenario

Assumptions

Year 1 Rent

Year 1 Cash Flow

Cash-on-Cash

Break-Even Rent

Year 5 Cash Flow

Conservative

−8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth

$2,691/mo

−$10,440/mo

-28.7%

$17,264/mo

−$10,517/mo

Base (your inputs)

Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth

$2,925/mo

−$10,104/mo

-27.8%

$15,979/mo

−$10,015/mo

Optimistic (cap-limited)

+6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 3.0%/yr rent growth (capped by local ordinance ceiling of 3.0%/yr)

$3,101/mo

−$9,911/mo

-27.2%

$15,608/mo

−$9,797/mo

Report year

Project / record

Type

Entitled

Permitted

Completed

Deed-restricted

2025

New Hillside SF on Downslope Lot(PLN25046)

ADU · Renter

1 (Nov 7, 2025)

—

2025

New Hillside SF on Downslope Lot(PLN25046)

SFD · Owner

1 (Nov 7, 2025)

—