Mill Valley 94941 · Tamalpais · APN 049-227-30 · Unincorporated Marin
Since October 2024 within ½ mile: 1 homes completed, 8 permitted, 2 proposed or in review; 1 demolition.
12 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
284 permits within ½ mile since October 2024
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
$2,287,000
Benchmark range: $2,013,000 – $2,561,000
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Oct 31, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Oct 31, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of R1-B1 as single-family residential, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Permit issued and active for 2.1 yr (first record Oct 3, 2024), with no completion or new permit record in 22 mo. · 1 unit · $60,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 12.6 yr (first record Mar 13, 2014), with no completion or new permit record in 12.4 yr. · 1 unit · $517,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 12 yr (first record Nov 12, 2014), with no completion or new permit record in 11.6 yr. · 1 unit · $525,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 12.1 yr (first record Sep 29, 2014), with no completion or new permit record in 11.3 yr. · 1 unit · $600,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 10.1 yr (first record Sep 20, 2016), with no completion or new permit record in 10.1 yr. · $17,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 9.4 yr (first record Jun 12, 2017), with no completion or new permit record in 8.4 yr. · 1 unit · $750,000 declared valuation
Nearby other (675 Northern Ave): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48943 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby plumbing / water heater / sewer (895 Autumn Ln): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48916 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby roof replacement (385 Countyview Dr): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48891 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,980,059 in September 2025 to $2,181,389 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94941 (not a parcel appraisal)
759 Marin Dr · 1 unit · $210,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
543 Northern Ave · 1 unit · $188,000 valuation
Records span Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 17, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
704 Cabin Dr · $1,000 valuation
Records span Jan 14, 2026 to Apr 24, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
522 Northern Ave (A D U 523 Shasta Ave) · 1 unit · $150,000 valuation
Records span Sep 3, 2025 to Apr 16, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94941 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,042,452 in September 2024 to $1,980,059 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94941 (not a parcel appraisal)
731 Bay Rd · 1 unit · $955,000 valuation
Records span May 12, 2025 to Aug 20, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
446 W Live Oak Dr (Adu 446a) · 1 unit · $25,000 valuation
Records span Apr 2, 2024 to Jun 18, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
403 Marin Ave (Adu 403a) · 1 unit · $1,000,000 valuation
Records span Dec 21, 2023 to Apr 18, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
423 Durant Way · 1 unit · $25,000 valuation
Records span Oct 26, 2023 to Mar 20, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
469 W Live Oak Dr (Aka 461) · 1 unit · $980,000 valuation
Records span Oct 22, 2020 to Jan 14, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
467 W Live Oak Dr (Aka 461a) · 1 unit · $100,000 valuation
Records span Jan 6, 2021 to Jan 14, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →Active in "Issued" for 2.1 yr (first record Oct 3, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 22 mo.
Active in "Issued" for 4.9 yr (first record Dec 13, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 4.7 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $850,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
Active in "Issued" for 3.3 yr (first record Jul 19, 2023) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.2 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $1,183,700 declared valuation across 2 permits).
Active in "Issued" for 4.1 yr (first record Sep 19, 2022) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.2 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $1,006,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
Active in "Issued" for 6 yr (first record Oct 22, 2020) with no new permit activity recorded in 21 mo. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $980,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
Active in "Issued" for 9.4 yr (first record Jun 12, 2017) with no new permit activity recorded in 8.4 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $750,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 2,439 parcels
+0.0% YoY
City baseline: 16.5 / 1k
50 in trailing 24m
Includes 14 ADUs
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94941
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($22,850/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($3,428/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
−$131,990/yr
Cash needed: $502,700
NOI: $6,660/yr
P&I: $11,554/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,950/mo rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $3,634/mo | −$11,453/mo | -27.3% | $19,621/mo | −$11,502/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,950/mo | −$10,999/mo | -26.3% | $18,161/mo | −$10,825/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $4,187/mo | −$10,739/mo | -25.6% | $17,739/mo | −$10,309/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
Issued1 unitsOct 3, 2024 – Jan 10, 2025
We group related permits and State housing reports into projects. That grouping is our inference, not an official record.
Attached A D U In Rear Yard; Attached Conc Ret Wall (Contiguous With Foundations)
Add Bdrm, Bath, Fam Rm, Utility Rm, Int Stair; Firepl Gas Insert
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Oct 31, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
| Report year | Project / record | Type | Entitled | Permitted | Completed | Deed-restricted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | —(178426) | ADU · Renter | — | 1 (Jan 10, 2025) | — | — |
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Oct 26, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Oct 31, 2026
0.11 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
816A SMITH RD; 816 SMITH RD
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Oct 31, 2026
Search by parcel number 049-227-30. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 049-227-30 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.