154 Morning Sun Ave

Mill Valley 94941 · Almonte · APN 051-083-48 · Unincorporated Marin

Property brief (PDF)Timeline ↓Calculator ↓Official records ↓

What's changing nearby

Since October 2024 within ½ mile: 1 homes completed, 7 permitted, 9 proposed or in review; 1 demolition; 1 commercial or mixed-use project.

19 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.

448 permits within ½ mile since October 2024

New construction12 · 3 units
Adds housing (ADU)13 · 13 units
Demolition1
Additions & renovations28
Building systems322
Repairs18
Other54

The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.

Explore projects on the map →Explore sales & prices →

Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Oct 30, 2026

Estimated price, listing status & sales records

Benchmark valuation & transaction history

Estimated PriceZHVI + ACS + Permits

$2,112,000

Benchmark range: $1,859,000 – $2,365,000

Listing StatusOff Market

Not currently listed for sale

Compare nearby sales & prices on map →

Last Sold & Tax Roll

No deed price in open GIS feed

Verify on Assessor's property search

How this estimated price is calculated (ZIP ZHVI + Neighborhood ACS + Permit Model)

Model monthly ownership cost ↓

1. Area home value baseline: 70% ZIP 94941 Zillow ZHVI ($2,181,389, September 2026) + 30% Almonte ACS median ($1,843,085); $2,079,898
2. Parcel & lot adjustment (1.02×): Single-family lot (7,275 sq ft, +1.5% lot-size adjustment vs 6,000 sq ft standard lot); +$32,061
3. Documented permitted improvements: No recent value-adding ADU, addition, or remodel permits recorded on this parcel; +$0

Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.

What could be built here

A screen, not a determination

ADU or junior ADU

Likely eligible

Zoned R1-B1 (single-family residential): state law allows ADUs where homes are allowed.

What we couldn't check (4)

Setbacks, height and size limits in the local ADU ordinance
Utility and sewer capacity, fire access
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

SB 9: two homes on the lot

Likely eligible

Zoned R1-B1, a single-family residential zone.

What we couldn't check (6)

Whether a tenant lived there in the last 3 years, or the building was withdrawn from rent under the Ellis Act
Rent-controlled or deed-restricted affordable housing on the lot
Wetlands, habitat, farmland, hazardous waste sites and conservation easements
Local SB 9 standards (size, setbacks, parking)
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

SB 9: split into two lots

Likely eligible

Zoned R1-B1, a single-family residential zone.
The lot is 7,275 sq ft by the assessor, room for two lots of at least 1,200 sq ft, each at least 40% of the original.

What we couldn't check (6)

Owner-occupancy: the applicant must sign an affidavit to live in one of the homes for 3 years
Whether the lot was created by an earlier SB 9 split, or the owner split an adjacent lot
Whether a tenant lived there in the last 3 years, or the building was withdrawn from rent under the Ellis Act
Wetlands, habitat, farmland, hazardous waste sites and conservation easements
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

Mapped hazards on this lot

Fire hazard severity zone: Not in a State-mapped zone
FEMA flood zone: Zone X: minimal flood hazardFIRM panel 06041C0469F, effective March 16, 2016. Official flood map
Earthquake fault zone: Not in an Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zone

Built nearby: within ¼ mile since October 2023

New single-family home1
Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion)3

See them on the map →

Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.

We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.

Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Oct 30, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of R1-B1 as single-family residential, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026

Property & area intelligence timeline

70 events · 35 slow/stalled projects

Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.

Slow-moving or stalled projects (35)

Active projects spending 12+ months pre-issuance, 24+ months under construction, or 6+ months without new records

StalledAccessory dwelling unit at 154 Morning Sun AveApplied
On this parcel
In "Applied" for 6.1 yr (since Sep 14, 2020), with no new permit record in 6.1 yr. · 1 unit · $120,000 declared valuation
StalledNew homeIssued
0.47 mi NW
Permit issued and active for 7.5 yr (first record May 10, 2019), with no completion or new permit record in 7.4 yr. · 1 unit
StalledNew home at 125 Yale AveApplied
340 ft N
In "Applied" for 6.8 yr (since Dec 24, 2019), with no new permit record in 6.8 yr. · 1 unit · $600,000 declared valuation
StalledAccessory dwelling unit at 311 Lowell Ave (309)Issued
0.33 mi S
Permit issued and active for 7 yr (first record Oct 21, 2019), with no completion or new permit record in 6.8 yr. · 1 unit · $15,000 declared valuation
StalledDemolition at 43 Loring AveApplied
0.42 mi NW
In "Applied" for 6.4 yr (since May 29, 2020), with no new permit record in 6.4 yr. · $5,000 declared valuation
StalledAccessory dwelling unit at 107 California AveApplied
0.2 mi NW
In "Applied" for 6.3 yr (since Jun 25, 2020), with no new permit record in 6.3 yr. · 1 unit · $15,500 declared valuation

202615 events

Oct 27, 2026 – Oct 28, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.23 mi S
Nearby electrical / panel (240 Perry St): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48926 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 27, 2026 – Oct 28, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.43 mi SE
Nearby other (254 Shoreline Hwy): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48920 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 27, 2026 – Oct 28, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.13 mi SE
Nearby plumbing / water heater / sewer (211 Cleveland Ave): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48909 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 26, 2026 – Oct 27, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
340 ft NE
Nearby electrical / panel (141 Morning Sun Ave): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48902 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 9, 2026Nearby project · Applied
0.13 mi N
Demolition at 123 Morning Sun Ave — Applied
123 Morning Sun Ave · $20,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
September 2026Market trend
ZIP 94941
ZIP 94941 typical home value: $2,181,389 (+10.2% year-over-year)
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,980,059 in September 2025 to $2,181,389 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94941 (not a parcel appraisal)
Sep 15, 2026Nearby project · Issued
0.32 mi SW
Accessory dwelling unit at 324 Sheffield Ave — Issued
324 Sheffield Ave · 1 unit · $80,000 valuation
Records span Jan 22, 2026 to Sep 15, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Aug 11, 2026Nearby project · Issued
0.32 mi SE
New home at 234 Almonte Blvd House & — Issued
234 Almonte Blvd House & · 1 unit · $524,300 valuation
Records span Dec 23, 2025 to Aug 11, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Aug 11, 2026Nearby project · Issued
0.3 mi SE
New home at 232 Almonte Blvd House #2 (aka 234) — Issued
232 Almonte Blvd House #2 (Aka 234) · 1 unit · $335,300 valuation
Records span Jan 22, 2026 to Aug 11, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Jul 1, 2026Nearby project · Applied
0.47 mi S
Accessory dwelling unit at 351 Dolan Ave — Applied
351 Dolan Ave · 1 unit · $149,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Jun 16, 2026Nearby project · Applied
0.45 mi SW
Accessory dwelling unit at 3 Leo Ln — Applied
3 Leo Ln · 1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Jun 4, 2026Nearby project · Applied
0.36 mi S
Accessory dwelling unit at 283 Greene St — Applied
283 Greene St · 1 unit · $300,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Jun 2, 2026Nearby project · Applied
0.2 mi N
Accessory dwelling unit at 114 Almonte Blvd — Applied
114 Almonte Blvd · 1 unit · $350,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
May 11, 2026Nearby project · Issued
0.17 mi SE
Accessory dwelling unit at 215 Julia Ave — Issued
215 Julia Ave · 1 unit · $175,000 valuation
Records span Dec 22, 2025 to May 11, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Apr 16, 2026Nearby project · Issued
0.47 mi NW
Accessory dwelling unit at 77 Homestead Blvd — Issued
77 Homestead Blvd · 1 unit · $600,000 valuation
Records span Apr 23, 2024 to Apr 16, 2026 (1 permit).
⏱ Slow turnaround:Permit issued and active for 2.5 yr (first record Apr 23, 2024), with no completion or new permit record in 6 mo.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)

Showing 15 of 70 timeline events

Recorded sales & deed transfers: California county recorders do not publish open bulk deed-transfer feeds without owner-PII restrictions, so individual sale deeds are not redistributed here. For official assessment roll and recorded transfer history in Unincorporated Marin, inspect Assessor's property search ↗.

Development graph & closer investigation

6 investigation leads

Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.

Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →

Developments deserving closer investigation (6)

On this parcel & within ½ mile

Accessory dwelling unit at 154 Morning Sun AveAppliedNo new record in 6.1 yr
On this parcel
Active in "Applied" for 6.1 yr (first record Sep 14, 2020) with no new permit activity recorded in 6.1 yr.
Accessory dwelling unit at 131 Yale Ave AIssuedNo new record in 3.4 yr$1,000,000
240 ft N
Active in "Issued" for 4.8 yr (first record Jan 19, 2022) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.4 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $1,000,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
New home at 217 Cleveland AveIssuedNo new record in 2.3 yr$875,000
0.15 mi S
Active in "Issued" for 9.7 yr (first record Feb 21, 2017) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.3 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $875,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
New commercial building at 100 Harvard AveIssuedNo new record in 17 mo$6,500,000
0.24 mi W
Active in "Issued" for 22 mo (first record Dec 26, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 17 mo. High-impact scale ($6,500,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
2 new homesIssuedNo new record in 5.7 yr$0
0.47 mi NW
Active in "Issued" for 5.7 yr (first record Mar 1, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 5.7 yr. High-impact scale (2 housing units, 1 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
2 new homesIssuedNo new record in 5.7 yr$0
0.47 mi NW
Active in "Issued" for 5.7 yr (first record Mar 1, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 5.7 yr. High-impact scale (2 housing units, 1 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).

Neighborhood renovation & housing momentum: Almonte

Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 738 parcels

Rank #11 of 22 neighborhoods in acceleration

Last 12m vs prior 12m: 7 vs 7 permits
24m rate per 1,000 parcels: 19.0
5-year substantial permits: 58
Housing additions (24m): 3 units

Ownership & rental scenario calculator

Prop 13 tax estimate & area benchmarks

Area rent & home-value benchmarks (kept separate from your assumptions)

Click any benchmark to pre-fill the calculator

HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94941

HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rent

Census ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):

Almonte$3,500+

ZIP 94941$3,100±$331

Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)

ZIP & neighborhood medians

Zillow ZHVI · ZIP 94941(as of September 2026)Data provided by Zillow · typical mid-tier home value in ZIP

$2,181,389

ACS Median Home Value · AlmonteCensus ACS 2020–2024 owner-occupied self-reported median

$1,843,000±$87,700

ACS Median Home Value · ZIP 94941Census ACS 2020–2024 owner-occupied self-reported median

$2,000,000+

1. Purchase, financing & Prop 13 tax reassessment

Purchase price ($)Down payment (%)$422,000Interest rate (%)Loan termClosing costs (%)$42,200

Prop 13 post-purchase property tax estimate

$2,060/mo ($24,715/yr · 1.17%)

Under California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($21,100/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($3,165/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).

Voter bond rate (%)$3,165/yrDirect levies / Mello-Roos ($/yr)Check Assessor's property search ↗

2. Your rent & operating assumptions

Monthly gross rent ($)Your assumptionVacancy allowance (%)−$198/moManagement (%)$300/moMaintenance (%)$198/moCapEx reserve (%)$198/moInsurance ($/mo)$1,980/yrHOA dues ($/mo)Owner utilities ($/mo)

Insurance & hazard context:

This lot is outside mapped CAL FIRE Fire Hazard Severity Zones and FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas. California insurance costs still vary widely by roof age, electrical panel, and carrier underwriting; obtain a property-specific quote rather than relying on rules of thumb.

3. Scenario results (based on your assumptions)

Net monthly cash flow: −$9,837
Cash-on-cash return: -25.4%
Cap rate (Year 1 NOI): 0.47%
DSCR (NOI / debt): 0.08x
Break-even gross rent: $16,659/mo
Break-even vacancy: 0% (negative at full occ.)

Monthly cash-flow breakdown (Effective gross $3,753 − Operating $2,920 − Debt $10,669)

Gross scheduled rent$3,950

Vacancy allowance (5%)−$198

Effective gross income$3,753

Prop 13 property tax (1.17%)−$2,060

Property insurance−$165

Management (8%), maintenance (5%) & CapEx (5%)−$695

Net Operating Income (NOI)+$833

Mortgage principal & interest (1,688,000 loan)−$10,669

Net monthly cash flow−$9,837

4. Sensitivity & rent-stabilization ceiling (Unincorporated Marin)

Scenario	Assumptions	Year 1 Rent	Year 1 Cash Flow	Cash-on-Cash	Break-Even Rent	Year 5 Cash Flow
Conservative	−8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth	$3,634/mo	−$10,290/mo	-26.6%	$17,998/mo	−$10,315/mo
Base (your inputs)	Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth	$3,950/mo	−$9,837/mo	-25.4%	$16,659/mo	−$9,637/mo
Optimistic (cap-limited)	+6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr)	$4,187/mo	−$9,576/mo	-24.8%	$16,272/mo	−$9,121/mo

Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):

California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.

Common statutory exemption signals under AB 1482

Housing issued a certificate of occupancy within the last 15 years (rolling exemption under AB 1482).
Separately alienable single-family homes or condominiums not owned by a corporation, REIT, or LLC with a corporate member (when required statutory notice is in the lease).
Owner-occupied duplexes where the owner occupied one unit from the start of the tenancy.

Development projects on this parcel

Accessory dwelling unit at 154 Morning Sun Ave
Applied1 unitsSep 14, 2020 – Sep 14, 2020

We group related permits and State housing reports into projects. That grouping is our inference, not an official record.

Permit history on this parcel

1 records

Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion)86452
A D U; Carport Below; Deck - Demo (E) Carport
A D U; Carport Below; Deck - Demo (E) Carport
Applied
Sep 14, 2020
Issued
Not issued
Recorded status
Applied as of Sep 13, 2020
Declared valuation
$120,000

Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Oct 30, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.

Housing activity reported to the State

No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).

Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Oct 26, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.

Zoning & planning

Zoning: R1-B1: Residential Single Family (Unincorporated Marin)

Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Oct 30, 2026

Parcel facts

Lot size: 7,275 sq ft
Assessor land use: Single-Resid. - Improved
Addresses on parcel: 1

Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Oct 30, 2026

Official records

Assessor's property search
Search by parcel number 051-083-48. Assessed value is not market value.
Property tax bill
Search by parcel number 051-083-48 (Marin County Tax Collector)
County permit lookup
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
FEMA Flood Map Service Center
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.

This site does not show owner names.

Scenario

Assumptions

Year 1 Rent

Year 1 Cash Flow

Cash-on-Cash

Break-Even Rent

Year 5 Cash Flow

Conservative

−8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth

$3,634/mo

−$10,290/mo

-26.6%

$17,998/mo

−$10,315/mo

Base (your inputs)

Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth

$3,950/mo

−$9,837/mo

-25.4%

$16,659/mo

−$9,637/mo

Optimistic (cap-limited)

+6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr)

$4,187/mo

−$9,576/mo

-24.8%

$16,272/mo

−$9,121/mo