221 Cardinal Rd

Mill Valley 94941 · Tamalpais · APN 052-043-09 · Unincorporated Marin

Compare Property brief (PDF)Timeline ↓Calculator ↓Official records ↓

Executive Verdict · Public-Records Synthesis

Flood:FEMA AE Fire zone:Moderate Fire Hazard Severity Zone (Local Responsibility Area)ADU screen:Likely eligible Benchmark est.:$2,130,000 Yr 1 Prop 13 est.:$2,079/mo

Zoned R1-B1 in Unincorporated Marin with likely ministerial ADU eligibility and mapped FEMA AE flood / CAL FIRE moderate fire hazard severity zone (local responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $2,130,000 ($1,874,000–$2,386,000).

Upsides & Opportunities

Ministerial ADU / JADU pathway likely eligibleDetails ↓
Zone R1-B1 allows residential use qualifying for ministerial ADU review under state law (4 ADU permits permitted within ¼ mile in 36 months).
Source: Unincorporated Marin zoning · CA Gov. Code 66314
Documented permitted upgrades (+$62,600 contributory est.)Details ↓
Public building records show issued construction/renovation work on this parcel (2 total permits, latest May 5, 2025).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
Above-average reinvestment in TamalpaisDetails ↓
50 substantial renovation & housing permits over 24 months (20.5 per 1,000 parcels vs. 16.4 citywide baseline) (#3 of 22 neighborhoods).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (Tamalpais)

Watchouts & Due Diligence

FEMA Special Flood Hazard Area (AE, about 97% of the lot of lot)Details ↓
Zone AE: 1% annual chance flood (Special Flood Hazard Area) overlaps this parcel. Expect mandatory flood insurance for federally backed loans and floodplain elevation/mitigation rules for new units or SB 9 applications.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
CAL FIRE Moderate Fire Hazard Severity Zone (Local Responsibility Area) (about 6% of the lot of lot)Details ↓
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Mar 24, 2025)
6 slow or stalled nearby projects within ½ mileDetails ↓
Closest lead: New commercial building at 201 Flamingo Rd (aka 205) (0.18 mi N, issued). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Year 1 Prop 13 tax reset (~$24,945/yr at $2,130,000)Details ↓
Sale triggers reassessment to 1.00% base + ~0.15% voter debt (~$2,079/mo). Confirm exact Mello-Roos / CFD special assessments on the county tax bill.
Source: CA Const. Art. XIIIA (Prop 13) · County Tax Collector

Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.

What's changing nearby

Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 8 permitted, 9 proposed or in review; 1 demolition.

19 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.

525 permits within ½ mile since November 2024

New construction18 · 2 units
Adds housing (ADU)15 · 15 units
Demolition1
Additions & renovations37
Building systems384
Repairs25
Other45

The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.

Explore projects on the map →Explore sales & prices →

Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026

Estimated price, listing status & sales records

Benchmark valuation & transaction history

Estimated PriceZHVI + ACS + Permits

$2,130,000

Benchmark range: $1,874,000 – $2,386,000

Listing StatusOff Market

Not currently listed for sale

Compare nearby sales & prices on map →

Last Sold & Tax Roll

No deed price in open GIS feed

Verify on Assessor's property search

How this estimated price is calculated (ZIP ZHVI + Neighborhood ACS + Permit Model)

Model monthly ownership cost ↓

1. Area home value baseline: 70% ZIP 94941 Zillow ZHVI ($2,181,389, September 2026) + 30% Tamalpais ACS median ($1,804,599); $2,068,352
2. Parcel & lot adjustment (1.00×): Single-family lot (5,968 sq ft, −0.0% lot-size adjustment vs 6,000 sq ft standard lot); −$885
3. Documented permitted improvements: +$62,600 from documented permits (1 remodel); +$62,600

Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.

What could be built here

A screen, not a determination

ADU or junior ADU

Likely eligible

Zoned R1-B1 (single-family residential): state law allows ADUs where homes are allowed.

What we couldn't check (4)

Setbacks, height and size limits in the local ADU ordinance
Utility and sewer capacity, fire access
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

SB 9: two homes on the lot

Possible, with conditions

Zoned R1-B1, a single-family residential zone.
FEMA regulatory floodway covers about 3% of the lot: SB 9 requires a no-rise certification.

What we couldn't check (6)

Whether a tenant lived there in the last 3 years, or the building was withdrawn from rent under the Ellis Act
Rent-controlled or deed-restricted affordable housing on the lot
Wetlands, habitat, farmland, hazardous waste sites and conservation easements
Local SB 9 standards (size, setbacks, parking)
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

SB 9: split into two lots

Possible, with conditions

Zoned R1-B1, a single-family residential zone.
The lot is 5,968 sq ft by the assessor, room for two lots of at least 1,200 sq ft, each at least 40% of the original.
FEMA regulatory floodway covers about 3% of the lot: SB 9 requires a no-rise certification.

What we couldn't check (6)

Owner-occupancy: the applicant must sign an affidavit to live in one of the homes for 3 years
Whether the lot was created by an earlier SB 9 split, or the owner split an adjacent lot
Whether a tenant lived there in the last 3 years, or the building was withdrawn from rent under the Ellis Act
Wetlands, habitat, farmland, hazardous waste sites and conservation easements
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

Mapped hazards on this lot

Fire hazard severity zone: Moderate Fire Hazard Severity Zone (Local Responsibility Area), about 6% of the lot · State map of Mar 24, 2025; takes effect when the city or county adopts it
FEMA flood zone: Zone AE: 1% annual chance flood (Special Flood Hazard Area), about 97% of the lotZone AE: regulatory floodway (Special Flood Hazard Area), about 3% of the lotFIRM panel 06041C0469F, effective March 16, 2016. Official flood map
Earthquake fault zone: Not in an Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zone

Built nearby: within ¼ mile since November 2023

Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion)4

See them on the map →

Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.

We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.

Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of R1-B1 as single-family residential, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026

Property & area intelligence timeline

81 events · 36 slow/stalled projects

Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.

Slow-moving or stalled projects (36)

Active projects spending 12+ months pre-issuance, 24+ months under construction, or 6+ months without new records

StalledNew home at 229 Cleveland AveIssued
0.46 mi NW
Permit issued and active for 13 yr (first record Oct 28, 2013), with no completion or new permit record in 12.1 yr. · 1 unit · $600,000 declared valuation
StalledNew commercial building at 201 Flamingo Rd (aka 205)Issued
0.18 mi N
Permit issued and active for 11.7 yr (first record Feb 17, 2015), with no completion or new permit record in 11.2 yr. · $3,938,400 declared valuation
StalledDemolition at 379 Dolan AveIssued
0.4 mi NW
Permit issued and active for 10.5 yr (first record May 24, 2016), with no completion or new permit record in 10.3 yr. · $10,000 declared valuation
StalledNew home at 222 Beryl StIssued
0.45 mi N
Permit issued and active for 11.9 yr (first record Dec 23, 2014), with no completion or new permit record in 10 yr. · 1 unit · $900,000 declared valuation
StalledNew commercial building at 203 Marin AveApplied
0.18 mi SW
In "Applied" for 9.6 yr (since Mar 20, 2017), with no new permit record in 9.6 yr. · $250,000 declared valuation
StalledDemolition at 307 Dolan AveIssued
0.2 mi W
Permit issued and active for 9.6 yr (first record Mar 28, 2017), with no completion or new permit record in 9.6 yr. · $250 declared valuation

202615 events

Nov 10, 2026 – Nov 11, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.35 mi SW
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (303 Dawn Ct): Description text was updated
Record 94638 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nov 10, 2026 – Nov 11, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.31 mi N
Nearby roof replacement (250 Morning Sun Ave): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B49077 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nov 9, 2026 – Nov 10, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.35 mi SW
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (303 Dawn Ct): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 94638 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nov 6, 2026 – Nov 7, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.2 mi W
Nearby other (358 Starling Rd): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B49046 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nov 6, 2026 – Nov 7, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.32 mi S
Nearby plumbing / water heater / sewer (400 Tennessee Glen Way): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B49038 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nov 5, 2026 – Nov 6, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.36 mi NW
Nearby roof replacement (330 Tennessee Ave): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B49023 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nov 4, 2026 – Nov 5, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.15 mi SE
Nearby electrical / panel (301 Tennessee Valley Rd): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B49005 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nov 4, 2026 – Nov 5, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.38 mi NW
Nearby accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) (254 Cleveland Ave): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 94629 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 31, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.29 mi W
Nearby accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) (Accessory dwelling unit at 310 Tennessee Ave): Description text was updated
Record 94571 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.29 mi W
Nearby accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) (Accessory dwelling unit at 310 Tennessee Ave): Description text was updated
Record 94571 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 27, 2026 – Oct 28, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.4 mi N
Nearby electrical / panel (240 Perry St): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48926 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 27, 2026 – Oct 28, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.25 mi N
Nearby other (254 Shoreline Hwy): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48920 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 26, 2026 – Oct 27, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
130 ft W
Nearby windows / doors / siding (220 Cardinal Rd): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48903 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 23, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.19 mi W
Nearby electrical / panel (354 Starling Rd): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48885 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 13, 2026Nearby project · Applied
0.29 mi W
Accessory dwelling unit at 310 Tennessee Ave — Applied
310 Tennessee Ave · 1 unit · $250,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)

Showing 15 of 81 timeline events

Recorded sales & deed transfers: California county recorders do not publish open bulk deed-transfer feeds without owner-PII restrictions, so individual sale deeds are not redistributed here. For official assessment roll and recorded transfer history in Unincorporated Marin, inspect Assessor's property search ↗.

Development graph & closer investigation

6 investigation leads · 10 active builders

Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.

Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →

Developments deserving closer investigation (6)

On this parcel & within ½ mile

New commercial building at 201 Flamingo Rd (aka 205)IssuedNo new record in 11.2 yr$3,938,400
0.18 mi N
Active in "Issued" for 11.7 yr (first record Feb 17, 2015) with no new permit activity recorded in 11.2 yr. High-impact scale ($3,938,400 declared valuation across 3 permits).
New home at 334 Dolan AveIssuedNo new record in 8 yr$759,000
0.3 mi NW
Active in "Issued" for 8.2 yr (first record Sep 5, 2018) with no new permit activity recorded in 8 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $759,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
New home at 535 Tennessee Valley Rd (adu 531)IssuedNo new record in 4 yr$800,000
0.42 mi S
Active in "Issued" for 6 yr (first record Oct 29, 2020) with no new permit activity recorded in 4 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $800,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
New home at 222 Beryl StIssuedNo new record in 10 yr$900,000
0.45 mi N
Active in "Issued" for 11.9 yr (first record Dec 23, 2014) with no new permit activity recorded in 10 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $900,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
New home at 217 Cleveland AveIssuedNo new record in 2.3 yr$875,000
0.48 mi N
Active in "Issued" for 9.7 yr (first record Feb 21, 2017) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.3 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $875,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
Accessory dwelling unit at 242 Morning Sun AveApplied>90th pct review time (2 yr)
0.35 mi N
In "Applied" for 2 yr (since Nov 21, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).

Neighborhood renovation & housing momentum: Tamalpais

Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 2,439 parcels

Rank #3 of 22 neighborhoods in acceleration

Last 12m vs prior 12m: 24 vs 26 permits
24m rate per 1,000 parcels: 20.5
5-year substantial permits: 150
Housing additions (24m): 19 units

Active builders & contractors connected to this area (10)

Entity-resolved across corporate suffixes (INC / LLC / CORP)

Builder / contractor	Primary specialty	Here / ½ mi	½ mi valuation	Citywide 24m trend
Garcia Reyes Construction	Remodel / interior alteration	1 on parcel1 in ½ mi	$118,560	0 vs 0 prior
Jm Electric	Electrical / panel	1 on parcel1 in ½ mi	$3,500	0 vs 0 prior
Owner Builder Recent nearby: 312 Dolan Ave (Oct 16, 2026)	Remodel / interior alteration	59 in ½ mi	$8,558,716	226 vs 240 prior−6%
Owner Recent nearby: 302 Starling Rd (Apr 10, 2025)	Remodel / interior alteration	39 in ½ mi	$2,958,125	25 vs 15 prior+67%
Ga Higgins Recent nearby: 475 Sherwood Dr - Apt #101 (Mar 24, 2017)	Remodel / interior alteration	10 in ½ mi	$108,400	0 vs 0 prior
Rods General Builders Recent nearby: 475 Sherwood Dr - Apt #303 (Mar 24, 2017)	Remodel / interior alteration	7 in ½ mi	$72,700	0 vs 0 prior
Lamperti Contracting And Design Recent nearby: 370 Dolan Ave (Feb 15, 2024)	Remodel / interior alteration	6 in ½ mi	$452,511	2 vs 7 prior
Lek Enterprises Recent nearby: 214 Villa Garden Dr Units Bldg 216 A-D (May 1, 2019)	Remodel / interior alteration	6 in ½ mi	$127,400	0 vs 11 prior−100%
Hunts Construction Partnership Recent nearby: 368 Shoreline Hwy (Aug 26, 2020)	Remodel / interior alteration	4 in ½ mi	$145,000	0 vs 0 prior
Salgo Constructions Recent nearby: 291 Morning Sun Ave (Jan 23, 2019)	Remodel / interior alteration	4 in ½ mi	$111,500	0 vs 0 prior

How long projects typically spend in review in Unincorporated Marin

Empirical turnaround from application to issuance (trailing 5 years)

Permit category	Sample (n)	25th pct	Median (50th)	75th pct	90th pct	Recent 24m median
New single-family home	121	166d	253d	456d	686d	211d(vs 273d prior)
New multifamily / condos / mixed-use	21	272d	292d	293d	313d	293d(vs 197d prior)
Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion)	298	120d	204d	331d	549d	214d(vs 181d prior)
Addition (adds square footage)	316	103d	160d	249d	440d	157d(vs 167d prior)
Remodel / interior alterationOn this parcel	1,054	36d	83d	148d	266d	112d(vs 77d prior)
Commercial tenant improvement	81	99d	148d	233d	443d	152d(vs 150d prior)
Electrical / panelOn this parcel	3,019	0d	0d	0d	2d	0d

Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.

Ownership & rental scenario calculator

Prop 13, ADU pro forma & area benchmarks

Area rent & home-value benchmarks (kept separate from your assumptions)

Click any benchmark to pre-fill the calculator

HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94941

HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rent

Census ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):

Tamalpais$2,994±$755

ZIP 94941$3,100±$331

Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)

ZIP & neighborhood medians

Zillow ZHVI · ZIP 94941(as of September 2026)Data provided by Zillow · typical mid-tier home value in ZIP

$2,181,389

ACS Median Home Value · TamalpaisCensus ACS 2020–2024 owner-occupied self-reported median

$1,805,000±$71,000

ACS Median Home Value · ZIP 94941Census ACS 2020–2024 owner-occupied self-reported median

$2,000,000+

1. Purchase, financing & Prop 13 tax reassessment

Purchase price ($)Down payment (%)$426,000Interest rate (%)Loan termClosing costs (%)$42,600

Prop 13 post-purchase property tax estimate

$2,079/mo ($24,945/yr · 1.17%)

Under California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($21,300/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($3,195/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).

Voter bond rate (%)$3,195/yrDirect levies / Mello-Roos ($/yr)Check Assessor's property search ↗

2. Your rent & operating assumptions

Monthly gross rent ($)Your assumptionVacancy allowance (%)−$198/moManagement (%)$300/moMaintenance (%)$198/moCapEx reserve (%)$198/moInsurance ($/mo)$3,300/yrHOA dues ($/mo)Owner utilities ($/mo)

Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:

Parcel intersects a mapped Moderate Fire Hazard Severity Zone (Local Responsibility Area) (local responsibility area). Properties in High or Very High fire hazard zones may require California FAIR Plan + difference-in-conditions (DIC) coverage; verify actual insurability and quotes early.
Parcel intersects a FEMA Special Flood Hazard Area (Zone AE: 1% annual chance flood (Special Flood Hazard Area)). Federally backed mortgages require flood insurance in SFHA zones.
Parcel intersects a FEMA Special Flood Hazard Area (Zone AE: regulatory floodway (Special Flood Hazard Area)). Federally backed mortgages require flood insurance in SFHA zones.

ADU / JADU Value-Add Pro Forma

Gov. Code § 66314: Likely eligible· 4 ADUs permitted within ¼ mi (36m)

Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.

Standalone preview: 8.1% yield on cost (+$262/mo)

3. Scenario results (based on your assumptions)

Net monthly cash flow: −$10,067
Cash-on-cash return: -25.8%
Cap rate (Year 1 NOI): 0.40%
DSCR (NOI / debt): 0.07x
Break-even gross rent: $16,956/mo
Break-even vacancy: 0% (negative at full occ.)

Monthly cash-flow breakdown (Effective gross $3,753 − Operating $3,049 − Debt $10,770)

Gross scheduled rent$3,950

Vacancy allowance (5%)−$198

Effective gross income$3,753

Prop 13 property tax (1.17%)−$2,079

Property insurance−$275

Management (8%), maintenance (5%) & CapEx (5%)−$695

Net Operating Income (NOI)+$704

Mortgage principal & interest (1,704,000 loan)−$10,770

Net monthly cash flow−$10,067

4. Sensitivity & rent-stabilization ceiling (Unincorporated Marin)

Scenario	Assumptions	Year 1 Rent	Year 1 Cash Flow	Cash-on-Cash	Break-Even Rent	Year 5 Cash Flow
Conservative	−8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth	$3,634/mo	−$10,521/mo	-26.9%	$18,320/mo	−$10,558/mo
Base (your inputs)	Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth	$3,950/mo	−$10,067/mo	-25.8%	$16,956/mo	−$9,880/mo
Optimistic (cap-limited)	+6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr)	$4,187/mo	−$9,806/mo	-25.1%	$16,563/mo	−$9,364/mo

Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):

California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.

Common statutory exemption signals under AB 1482

Housing issued a certificate of occupancy within the last 15 years (rolling exemption under AB 1482).
Separately alienable single-family homes or condominiums not owned by a corporation, REIT, or LLC with a corporate member (when required statutory notice is in the lease).
Owner-occupied duplexes where the owner occupied one unit from the start of the tenancy.

Permit history on this parcel

2 records

Remodel / interior alteration179180
nterior Remodel Of Kitchen, Converting Garage To New Bedroom, Bath & Closet.
nterior Remodel Of Kitchen, Converting Garage To New Bedroom, Bath & Closet.
Applied
Jan 28, 2025
Issued
May 5, 2025
Recorded status
Issued as of May 4, 2025
Declared valuation
$118,560
Contractor:
Garcia Reyes Construction
Electrical / panelB37931
Replace zinsco 100 amp main meter panel for a Eaton 200 amp main meter panel. Insurance requested the replacement due to fire hazards. — Service Upgrade
Replace zinsco 100 amp main meter panel for a Eaton 200 amp main meter panel. Insurance requested the replacement due to fire hazards. — Service Upgrade
Applied
May 3, 2024
Issued
May 3, 2024
Recorded status
Issued as of May 3, 2024
Declared valuation
$3,500
Contractor:
Jm Electric

Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.

Housing activity reported to the State

No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).

Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.

Zoning & planning

Zoning: R1-B1: Residential Single Family (Unincorporated Marin)

Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026

Parcel facts

Lot size: 5,968 sq ft
Assessor land use: Single-Resid. - Improved
Addresses on parcel: 1

Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026

Official records

Assessor's property search
Search by parcel number 052-043-09. Assessed value is not market value.
Property tax bill
Search by parcel number 052-043-09 (Marin County Tax Collector)
County permit lookup
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
FEMA Flood Map Service Center
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.

This site does not show owner names.

Builder / contractor

Primary specialty

Here / ½ mi

½ mi valuation

Citywide 24m trend

Garcia Reyes Construction

Remodel / interior alteration

1 on parcel1 in ½ mi

$118,560

0 vs 0 prior

Jm Electric

Electrical / panel

1 on parcel1 in ½ mi

$3,500

0 vs 0 prior

Owner Builder

Recent nearby: 312 Dolan Ave (Oct 16, 2026)

Remodel / interior alteration

59 in ½ mi

$8,558,716

226 vs 240 prior−6%

Owner

Recent nearby: 302 Starling Rd (Apr 10, 2025)

Remodel / interior alteration

39 in ½ mi

$2,958,125

25 vs 15 prior+67%

Ga Higgins

Recent nearby: 475 Sherwood Dr - Apt #101 (Mar 24, 2017)

Remodel / interior alteration

10 in ½ mi

$108,400

0 vs 0 prior

Rods General Builders

Recent nearby: 475 Sherwood Dr - Apt #303 (Mar 24, 2017)

Remodel / interior alteration

7 in ½ mi

$72,700

0 vs 0 prior

Lamperti Contracting And Design

Recent nearby: 370 Dolan Ave (Feb 15, 2024)

Remodel / interior alteration

6 in ½ mi

$452,511

2 vs 7 prior

Lek Enterprises

Recent nearby: 214 Villa Garden Dr Units Bldg 216 A-D (May 1, 2019)

Remodel / interior alteration

6 in ½ mi

$127,400

0 vs 11 prior−100%

Hunts Construction Partnership

Recent nearby: 368 Shoreline Hwy (Aug 26, 2020)

Remodel / interior alteration

4 in ½ mi

$145,000

0 vs 0 prior

Salgo Constructions

Recent nearby: 291 Morning Sun Ave (Jan 23, 2019)

Remodel / interior alteration

4 in ½ mi

$111,500

0 vs 0 prior

Permit category

Sample (n)

25th pct

Median (50th)

75th pct

90th pct

Recent 24m median

New single-family home

121

166d

253d

456d

686d

211d(vs 273d prior)

New multifamily / condos / mixed-use

272d

292d

293d

313d

293d(vs 197d prior)

Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion)

298

120d

204d

331d

549d

214d(vs 181d prior)

Addition (adds square footage)

316

103d

160d

249d

440d

157d(vs 167d prior)

Remodel / interior alterationOn this parcel

1,054

36d

83d

148d

266d

112d(vs 77d prior)

Commercial tenant improvement

99d

148d

233d

443d

152d(vs 150d prior)

Electrical / panelOn this parcel

3,019

Scenario

Assumptions

Year 1 Rent

Year 1 Cash Flow

Cash-on-Cash

Break-Even Rent

Year 5 Cash Flow

Conservative

−8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth

$3,634/mo

−$10,521/mo

-26.9%

$18,320/mo

−$10,558/mo

Base (your inputs)

Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth

$3,950/mo

−$10,067/mo

-25.8%

$16,956/mo

−$9,880/mo

Optimistic (cap-limited)

+6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr)

$4,187/mo

−$9,806/mo

-25.1%

$16,563/mo

−$9,364/mo