Nicasio 94946 · Nicasio · APN 121-120-27 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned ARP-60 in Unincorporated Marin and mapped CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $2,226,000 ($1,959,000–$2,493,000).
Public building records show issued construction/renovation work on this parcel (7 total permits, latest Apr 14, 2025).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 1 proposed or in review.
1 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
4 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
$2,226,000
Benchmark range: $1,959,000 – $2,493,000
Other (90146): Pending in review for 4.3 yr — slower than 90% of other permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 0d, 90th pct 71d, n=1,560).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (review-time benchmark)
Closest lead: Accessory dwelling unit at 4299 Nicasio Valley Rd (0.45 mi NW, applied). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
No ADU or new-home permits recorded within ¼ mile in this window.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of ARP-60 as agricultural, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
In "Applied" for 17 mo (since Jun 9, 2025), with no new permit record in 17 mo. · 1 unit · $50,000 declared valuation
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $2,055,088 in September 2025 to $2,118,994 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,152,177 in September 2024 to $2,055,088 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
4299 Nicasio Valley Rd · 1 unit · $50,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Roof replacement permit issued (B42010)
Recorded status: Issued
replace roof on barn — ReRoofing · Declared valuation: $23,500 · Contractor: Owner
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Roof replacement permit application filed (B42010)
Current status: Issued
replace roof on barn — ReRoofing · Declared valuation: $23,500 · Contractor: Owner
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,146,567 in September 2023 to $2,152,177 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,246,416 in September 2022 to $2,146,567 in September 2023.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,090,467 in September 2021 to $2,246,416 in September 2022.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Other permit application filed (90146)
Current status: Applied
Barn, Ag Exempt · Declared valuation: $15,000
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
2800 Nicasio Valley Rd · 1 unit · $340,000 valuation
Records span Dec 26, 2019 to Feb 1, 2022 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
New garage / accessory structure permit issued (170503)
Recorded status: Issued
Tear Down Reb. Garage T.D. 11-9-20 · Declared valuation: $96,000 · Contractor: Connacht Construction
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Solar / battery storage permit application filed (B27769)
Current status: Issued
Solar/Battery storage installation 15.7 kW · Declared valuation: $72,979 · Contractor: Urban Energy Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Solar / battery storage permit issued (B27769)
Recorded status: Issued
Solar/Battery storage installation 15.7 kW · Declared valuation: $72,979 · Contractor: Urban Energy Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,618,926 in September 2020 to $2,090,467 in September 2021.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
New garage / accessory structure permit application filed (170503)
Current status: Issued
Tear Down Reb. Garage T.D. 11-9-20 · Declared valuation: $96,000 · Contractor: Connacht Construction
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →Pending in review for 4.3 yr — slower than 90% of other permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 0d, 90th pct 71d, n=1,560).
Issued after 15 mo (2.8× the 164d median) — above the 75th percentile for new garage / accessory structure permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 164d, 75th pct 294d, n=356).
In "Applied" for 17 mo (since Jun 9, 2025), exceeding the 253d median and 456d 75th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owner Builder | Addition (adds square footage) | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $220,000 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Connacht Construction | New garage / accessory structure | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $96,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Urban Energy | Solar / battery storage | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $72,979 |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| New garage / accessory structureOn this parcel | 356 | 104d | 164d | 294d | 485d | 159d(vs 205d prior) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94946
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($22,250/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($3,338/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$136,483/yr
Cash needed: $489,500
NOI: -$1,473/yr
P&I: $11,251/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,000/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,760/mo | −$11,718/mo | -28.7% | $19,117/mo | −$11,801/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,000/mo | −$11,374/mo | -27.9% | $17,695/mo | −$11,286/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,180/mo | −$11,176/mo | -27.4% | $17,284/mo | −$10,895/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
replace roof on barn — ReRoofing
Barn, Ag Exempt
Tear Down Reb. Garage T.D. 11-9-20
Solar/Battery storage installation 15.7 kW
replace 2 air conditioners & 2 propane furnaces; ducting — Replace Ductwork, Replace Mechanical Appliance
Structural Rmdl, Decks, Roof Skylights T.D. 10/22/18
Pv 9.60 Kw Express - Reduce K W To 9.44 2/25/19
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
58.36 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
3200 NICASIO VALLEY RD
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 121-120-27. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 121-120-27 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| 0 vs 0 prior |
| Petersen Dean | Solar / battery storage | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $31,792 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Owner | Roof replacement | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $23,500 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Haddon Heating And Cooling | HVAC / heat pump | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $19,800 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Fault Line Builders Recent nearby: 2800 Nicasio Valley Rd (Mar 5, 2021) | New garage / accessory structure | 2 in ½ mi | $468,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage)On this parcel | 316 | 103d | 160d | 249d | 440d | 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alteration | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Solar / battery storageOn this parcel | 2,977 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 2d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.