Nicasio 94946 · Nicasio · APN 121-160-12 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned ARP-5 in Unincorporated Marin and mapped CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $2,206,000 ($1,941,000–$2,471,000).
Public building records show issued construction/renovation work on this parcel (5 total permits, latest Jan 8, 2025).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
2 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
$2,206,000
Benchmark range: $1,941,000 – $2,471,000
Remodel / interior alteration (156801): Issued after 6 mo (2.2× the 83d median) — above the 75th percentile for remodel / interior alteration permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 83d, 75th pct 148d, n=1,054).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (review-time benchmark)
Sale triggers reassessment to 1.00% base + ~0.15% voter debt (~$2,152/mo). Confirm exact Mello-Roos / CFD special assessments on the county tax bill.
Source: CA Const. Art. XIIIA (Prop 13) · County Tax Collector
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
No ADU or new-home permits recorded within ¼ mile in this window.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of ARP-5 as agricultural, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Nearby demolition (3311 Nicasio Valley Rd): Description text was updated
Record 94595 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $2,055,088 in September 2025 to $2,118,994 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,152,177 in September 2024 to $2,055,088 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Plumbing / water heater / sewer permit application filed (B40760)
Current status: Issued
Replace tankless water heater that failed and located in the garage and will install a new tankless water heater in the location. — Replace Plumbing Fixtures(s) · Declared valuation: $2,200 · Contractor: Ernest Ongaro & Sons Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Plumbing / water heater / sewer permit issued (B40760)
Recorded status: Issued
Replace tankless water heater that failed and located in the garage and will install a new tankless water heater in the location. — Replace Plumbing Fixtures(s) · Declared valuation: $2,200 · Contractor: Ernest Ongaro & Sons Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,146,567 in September 2023 to $2,152,177 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,246,416 in September 2022 to $2,146,567 in September 2023.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,090,467 in September 2021 to $2,246,416 in September 2022.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,618,926 in September 2020 to $2,090,467 in September 2021.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
New garage / accessory structure permit issued (156800)
Recorded status: Issued
Rmdl 1 Bdrm Guest House - Not A Dwelling Unit T.D. 6/16/17 · Declared valuation: $150,000 · Contractor: Owner
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Remodel / interior alteration permit issued (156801)
Recorded status: Issued
Rmdl 2 Bdrm Guest House T.D. 6/16/17 · Declared valuation: $300,000 · Contractor: Owner
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
New garage / accessory structure permit application filed (156800)
Current status: Issued
Rmdl 1 Bdrm Guest House - Not A Dwelling Unit T.D. 6/16/17 · Declared valuation: $150,000 · Contractor: Owner
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Remodel / interior alteration permit application filed (156801)
Current status: Issued
Rmdl 2 Bdrm Guest House T.D. 6/16/17 · Declared valuation: $300,000 · Contractor: Owner
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Pool / spa permit issued (153367)
Recorded status: Issued
Pool & Spa***Expired · Declared valuation: $120,000 · Contractor: Hendrickson Pools, Inc.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Pool / spa permit application filed (153367)
Current status: Issued
Pool & Spa***Expired · Declared valuation: $120,000 · Contractor: Hendrickson Pools, Inc.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →Issued after 6 mo (2.2× the 83d median) — above the 75th percentile for remodel / interior alteration permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 83d, 75th pct 148d, n=1,054).
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owner | New garage / accessory structure | 2 on parcel2 in ½ mi | $450,000 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Total Concepts | Remodel / interior alteration | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $800,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Hendrickson Pools | Pool / spa | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $120,000 | 3 vs 4 prior |
| Ernest Ongaro And Sons | Plumbing / water heater / sewer | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $2,200 | 0 |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| New garage / accessory structureOn this parcel | 356 | 104d | 164d | 294d | 485d | 159d(vs 205d prior) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94946
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($22,050/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($3,308/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$135,040/yr
Cash needed: $485,100
NOI: -$1,243/yr
P&I: $11,150/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,000/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,760/mo | −$11,598/mo | -28.7% | $18,949/mo | −$11,679/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,000/mo | −$11,253/mo | -27.8% | $17,539/mo | −$11,165/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,180/mo | −$11,055/mo | -27.3% | $17,132/mo | −$10,773/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
Replace tankless water heater that failed and located in the garage and will install a new tankless water heater in the location. — Replace Plumbing Fixtures(s)
Rmdl 2 Bdrm Guest House T.D. 6/16/17
Rmdl 1 Bdrm Guest House - Not A Dwelling Unit T.D. 6/16/17
Pool & Spa***Expired
Remodel, Struct & Non-Struct; Add & Repl Wndws T.D. 11/13/15
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
8.36 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
2401 NICASIO VALLEY RD
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 121-160-12. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 121-160-12 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) | 316 | 103d | 160d | 249d | 440d | 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alterationOn this parcel | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Pool / spaOn this parcel | 162 | 84d | 136d | 241d | 393d | 128d(vs 155d prior) |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.