Novato 94945 · APN 141-201-48 · Novato
Zoned PD in Novato and mapped FEMA AE flood due diligence; benchmark value $1,185,000 ($1,007,000–$1,363,000).
Estimated range $1,007,000–$1,363,000 derived from area zhvi + acs + permit benchmark and 82,546 sq ft lot geometry.
Source: ZIP 94945 Zillow Home Value Index ($1,063,156, September 2026) (Data provided by Zillow)
Zone AE: 1% annual chance flood (Special Flood Hazard Area) overlaps this parcel. Expect mandatory flood insurance for federally backed loans and floodplain elevation/mitigation rules for new units or SB 9 applications.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Lodge on Novato Creek: Active in "Entitled" for 2 yr (first record Nov 18, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 2 yr. High-impact scale (55 housing units, 5 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (review-time benchmark)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since — within ½ mile: 2 permitted, 56 proposed or in review (5 of them deed-restricted affordable).
4 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
No permit activity recorded within ½ mile.
$1,185,000
Benchmark range: $1,007,000 – $1,363,000
Closest lead: AMG 4th and Grant (270 ft N, entitled). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Permit counts and nearby activity on this page may omit municipal counter records. Request a parcel permit report directly from the local building department.
Source: Source coverage registry (Novato)
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
We don't have building permits for Novato, so we can't show what has been permitted nearby.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Novato's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 14, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of PD as planned development, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
In "Entitled" for 2 yr (since Nov 18, 2024), with no new permit record in 2 yr. · 55 units
In "Entitled" for 7.9 yr (since Dec 13, 2018), with no new permit record in 7.9 yr. · 1 unit
In "Entitled" for 6.8 yr (since Jan 27, 2020), with no new permit record in 6.8 yr. · 5 units
Permit issued and active for 6.6 yr (first record Apr 9, 2020), with no completion or new permit record in 6.6 yr. · 1 unit
In "Entitled" for 6.6 yr (since Apr 16, 2020), with no new permit record in 6.6 yr. · 32 units
In "Entitled" for 6.3 yr (since Jul 20, 2020), with no new permit record in 6.3 yr. · 1 unit
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,053,344 in September 2025 to $1,063,156 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,073,876 in September 2024 to $1,053,344 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Planning entitlement approved for 55 housing units (Lodge on Novato Creek)
Reported in 2024 Housing Element Annual Progress Report
5+ · Renter · 5 deed-restricted affordable
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: parcel
Planning entitlement approved for 55 housing units (Lodge on Novato Creek)
Reported in 2025 Housing Element Annual Progress Report
5+ · Renter · 5 deed-restricted affordable
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: parcel
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,040,503 in September 2023 to $1,073,876 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
209 units · 206 affordable
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
56 units · 55 affordable
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Novato development graph →Active in "Entitled" for 2 yr (first record Nov 18, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 2 yr. High-impact scale (55 housing units, 5 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
Active in "Entitled" for 2.2 yr (first record Aug 27, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.2 yr. High-impact scale (209 housing units, 206 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
Active in "Entitled" for 2.4 yr (first record Jun 11, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.4 yr. High-impact scale (56 housing units, 55 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
Active in "Entitled" for 6.6 yr (first record Apr 16, 2020) with no new permit activity recorded in 6.6 yr. High-impact scale (32 housing units, 7 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
Active in "Entitled" for 4.7 yr (first record Mar 8, 2022) with no new permit activity recorded in 4.7 yr. High-impact scale (5 housing units across 0 permits).
Active in "Entitled" for 6.8 yr (first record Jan 27, 2020) with no new permit activity recorded in 6.8 yr. High-impact scale (5 housing units across 0 permits).
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94945
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($11,850/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($1,778/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$61,418/yr
Cash needed: $260,700
NOI: $10,487/yr
P&I: $5,992/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,000/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,760/mo | −$5,463/mo | -25.1% | $10,385/mo | −$5,464/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,000/mo | −$5,118/mo | -23.6% | $9,613/mo | −$4,949/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,180/mo | −$4,920/mo | -22.6% | $9,389/mo | −$4,557/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
Entitled55 units5 deed-restrictedNov 18, 2024 – Nov 18, 2024
We group related permits and State housing reports into projects. That grouping is our inference, not an official record.
No building permits are recorded for this parcel since 2016.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
| Report year | Project / record | Type | Entitled | Permitted | Completed | Deed-restricted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lodge on Novato Creek(P2023-080) | 5+ · Renter | 55 (Nov 18, 2024) | — | — | 5 |
| 2024 | Lodge on Novato Creek(P2023-080) | 5+ · Renter | 55 (Nov 18, 2024) | — | — | 5 |
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Novato's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026
1.89 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
1787 GRANT AVE
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026
Search by parcel number 141-201-48. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 141-201-48 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.