Novato 94945 · Green Point · APN 143-473-12 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned ARP-2 in Unincorporated Marin and mapped CAL FIRE moderate fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $1,337,000 ($1,177,000–$1,497,000).
On-parcel permit history is indexed through Feb 11, 2026, letting you verify roof, HVAC, electrical, or structural work against seller disclosures.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 1 permitted.
1 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
26 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
$1,337,000
Benchmark range: $1,177,000 – $1,497,000
Closest lead: New home at 50 Lockton Ln (0.39 mi NE, issued). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Sale triggers reassessment to 1.00% base + ~0.15% voter debt (~$1,319/mo). Confirm exact Mello-Roos / CFD special assessments on the county tax bill.
Source: CA Const. Art. XIIIA (Prop 13) · County Tax Collector
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
No ADU or new-home permits recorded within ¼ mile in this window.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 14, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of ARP-2 as agricultural, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Permit issued and active for 8.7 yr (first record Feb 21, 2018), with no completion or new permit record in 8.5 yr. · 1 unit · $1,090,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 5.8 yr (since Feb 10, 2021), with no new permit record in 5.6 yr. · 1 unit · $95,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 5.6 yr (since Mar 26, 2021), with no new permit record in 4.9 yr. · 1 unit · $96,309 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 2.8 yr (first record Feb 8, 2024), with no completion or new permit record in 18 mo. · 1 unit · $200,000 declared valuation
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,053,344 in September 2025 to $1,063,156 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
Other permit application filed (B45834)
Current status: Issued
Declared valuation: $62,371 · Contractor: Northern Pacific Power Systems Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Other permit issued (B45834)
Recorded status: Issued
Declared valuation: $62,371 · Contractor: Northern Pacific Power Systems Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,073,876 in September 2024 to $1,053,344 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
200 Atherton Ave (Adu 200a) · 1 unit · $200,000 valuation
Records span Feb 8, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,040,503 in September 2023 to $1,073,876 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,070,658 in September 2022 to $1,040,503 in September 2023.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
120 Atherton Oaks Dr · 1 unit · $2,500,000 valuation
Records span Dec 30, 2022 to Sep 1, 2023 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $988,993 in September 2021 to $1,070,658 in September 2022.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
435 School Rd · 1 unit · $96,309 valuation
Records span Mar 26, 2021 to Dec 27, 2021 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $816,588 in September 2020 to $988,993 in September 2021.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
10 Atherton Oaks Dr · 1 unit · $95,000 valuation
Records span Feb 10, 2021 to Mar 30, 2021 (2 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
50 Lockton Ln · 1 unit · $1,090,000 valuation
Records span Feb 21, 2018 to May 17, 2018 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
145 Atherton Oaks Dr · 1 unit · $630,000 valuation
Records span Jul 16, 2015 to Mar 14, 2018 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Roof replacement permit application filed (B11446)
Current status: Issued
reroof — ReRoofing; With Electronic Inspection · Declared valuation: $9,800 · Contractor: David Roofing
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →Active in "Issued" for 8.7 yr (first record Feb 21, 2018) with no new permit activity recorded in 8.5 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $1,090,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
In "Applied" for 5.8 yr (since Feb 10, 2021), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
In "Applied" for 5.6 yr (since Mar 26, 2021), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
Active in "Issued" for 2.8 yr (first record Feb 8, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 18 mo.
High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $2,500,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 412 parcels
Small prior baseline
City baseline: 16.3 / 1k
2 in trailing 24m
Includes 1 ADUs
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Pacific Power | Other | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $62,371 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| David Roofing | Roof replacement | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $9,800 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Home Depot The | Windows / doors / siding | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $1,885 | 0 |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 210d(vs 276d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94945
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($16,585/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($2,488/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
Statutory notes: Under CA Gov. Code § 66324 (SB 13), local agencies cannot impose development impact fees on ADUs under 750 sq ft (plan-check, school district fees ≥500 sq ft, and utility connection fees still apply). Under CA Rev. & Tax. Code § 71, building an ADU triggers a supplemental assessment on the new construction value without reassessing the existing dwelling or land. Newly built ADUs also carry a rolling 15-year exemption from statewide AB 1482 rent caps from certificate of occupancy.
−$76,296/yr
Cash needed: $374,575
NOI: $27,721/yr
P&I: $8,668/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $5,500/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $5,060/mo | −$6,990/mo | -22.4% | $14,817/mo | −$6,927/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $5,500/mo | −$6,358/mo | -20.4% | $13,715/mo | −$5,983/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $5,830/mo | −$5,995/mo | -19.2% | $13,396/mo | −$5,266/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
reroof — ReRoofing; With Electronic Inspection
Repl 1 Wndw Size For Size - Must Meet W U I And Egress***Expired Requirements ***Extended To 10/8/19
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026
1.08 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
15 ATHERTON OAKS DR
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026
Search by parcel number 143-473-12. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 143-473-12 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| Owner Builder Recent nearby: 135 Atherton Oaks Dr (Mar 29, 2017) | Pool / spa | 4 in ½ mi | $775,000 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Ian A Neilson Construction Services Recent nearby: 120 Atherton Oaks Dr (Sep 1, 2023) | New garage / accessory structure | 2 in ½ mi | $2,600,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Owner Recent nearby: 393 School Rd (Jul 20, 2021) | New garage / accessory structure | 2 in ½ mi | $210,000 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Valencia Landscaping Recent nearby: 50 Lockton Ln (May 17, 2018) | New single-family home | 1 in ½ mi | $1,090,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Jsl Contracting Recent nearby: 55 Atherton Oaks Dr (Oct 25, 2021) | Remodel / interior alteration | 1 in ½ mi | $250,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Wormood Recent nearby: 440 School Rd (Nov 20, 2023) | Remodel / interior alteration | 1 in ½ mi | $250,000 | 1 vs 2 prior |
| Hildebrand Renovation Recent nearby: 200 Atherton Ave (Adu 200a) (Apr 29, 2025) | Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 1 in ½ mi | $200,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| 316 |
| 103d |
| 160d |
| 249d |
| 440d |
| 159d(vs 166d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alteration | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Roof replacementOn this parcel | 3,663 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d |
| Windows / doors / sidingOn this parcel | 1,477 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 5d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.