Novato 94947 · APN 146-110-96 · Novato
Zoned RVL-40 in Novato with likely ministerial ADU eligibility and mapped CAL FIRE moderate fire hazard severity zone (local responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $1,128,000 ($959,000–$1,297,000).
Zone RVL-40 allows residential use qualifying for ministerial ADU review under state law.
Source: Novato zoning · CA Gov. Code 66314
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Mar 24, 2025)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 2 permitted, 2 proposed or in review.
4 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
5 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026
$1,128,000
Benchmark range: $959,000 – $1,297,000
Johnk Urban Lot Split: Active in "Entitled" for 16 mo (first record Jul 7, 2025) with no new permit activity recorded in 16 mo.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (review-time benchmark)
Closest lead: Ma Urban Lot Split (0.18 mi N, entitled). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
We don't have building permits for Novato, so we can't show what has been permitted nearby.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Novato's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 14, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of RVL-40 as single-family residential, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
In "Entitled" for 16 mo (since Jul 7, 2025), with no new permit record in 16 mo. · 1 unit
In "Entitled" for 6.3 yr (since Jul 9, 2020), with no new permit record in 6.3 yr. · 1 unit
In "Entitled" for 5.7 yr (since Mar 3, 2021), with no new permit record in 5.7 yr. · 1 unit
In "Entitled" for 5.4 yr (since Jun 28, 2021), with no new permit record in 5.4 yr. · 1 unit
Permit issued and active for 5.4 yr (first record Jun 30, 2021), with no completion or new permit record in 5.4 yr. · 1 unit
Permit issued and active for 5.1 yr (first record Oct 20, 2021), with no completion or new permit record in 5.1 yr. · 1 unit
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $983,284 in September 2025 to $1,012,808 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94947 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94947 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,021,699 in September 2024 to $983,284 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94947 (not a parcel appraisal)
Planning entitlement approved for 1 housing unit (Johnk Urban Lot Split)
Reported in 2025 Housing Element Annual Progress Report
SFD · Owner
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: parcel
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94947 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $993,500 in September 2023 to $1,021,699 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94947 (not a parcel appraisal)
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
1 unit
Records span Jul 11, 2022 to Jan 12, 2024 (0 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94947 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,029,641 in September 2022 to $993,500 in September 2023.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94947 (not a parcel appraisal)
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
1 unit
Records span Nov 19, 2021 to May 31, 2023 (0 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94947 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $949,991 in September 2021 to $1,029,641 in September 2022.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94947 (not a parcel appraisal)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Novato development graph →Active in "Entitled" for 16 mo (first record Jul 7, 2025) with no new permit activity recorded in 16 mo.
Active in "Entitled" for 17 mo (first record Jun 27, 2025) with no new permit activity recorded in 17 mo.
Active in "Entitled" for 5.7 yr (first record Mar 3, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 5.7 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 2 yr (first record Nov 4, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 2 yr.
Active in "Entitled" for 5.4 yr (first record Jun 28, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 5.4 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 5.1 yr (first record Oct 20, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 5.1 yr.
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94947
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($11,300/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($1,695/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$55,126/yr
Cash needed: $248,600
NOI: $13,441/yr
P&I: $5,714/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,250/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,990/mo | −$4,967/mo | -24.0% | $9,924/mo | −$4,954/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,250/mo | −$4,594/mo | -22.2% | $9,185/mo | −$4,396/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,445/mo | −$4,379/mo | -21.1% | $8,972/mo | −$3,972/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
Entitled1 unitsJul 7, 2025 – Jul 7, 2025
We group related permits and State housing reports into projects. That grouping is our inference, not an official record.
No building permits are recorded for this parcel since 2016.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
| Report year | Project / record | Type | Entitled | Permitted | Completed | Deed-restricted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Johnk Urban Lot Split(P2025-024) | SFD · Owner | 1 (Jul 7, 2025) | — | — | — |
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Novato's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026
1.31 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
651 CANYON RD
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026
Search by parcel number 146-110-96. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 146-110-96 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.