Novato 94947 · North Novato · APN 146-241-16 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned A2-B4 in Unincorporated Marin and mapped CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $1,293,000 ($1,138,000–$1,448,000).
Public building records show issued construction/renovation work on this parcel (3 total permits, latest May 17, 2024).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 1 proposed or in review.
1 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
58 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
$1,293,000
Benchmark range: $1,138,000 – $1,448,000
Demolition at 176 Wild Horse Valley Dr: Active in "Issued" for 2.9 yr (first record Dec 6, 2023) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.5 yr.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (review-time benchmark)
Closest lead: New home at 2500 Vineyard Rd (0.46 mi N, applied). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
No ADU or new-home permits recorded within ¼ mile in this window.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of A2-B4 as agricultural, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Permit issued and active for 2.9 yr (first record Dec 6, 2023), with no completion or new permit record in 2.5 yr. · $140,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 8.3 yr (first record Aug 9, 2018), with no completion or new permit record in 7.8 yr. · $275,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 2.8 yr (first record Jan 24, 2024), with no completion or new permit record in 2.8 yr. · 1 unit · $6,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 3.3 yr (since Jul 14, 2023), with no new permit record in 2.8 yr. · 1 unit
In "Applied" for 9 mo (since Feb 12, 2026), with no new permit record in 9 mo. · 1 unit · $216,000 declared valuation
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $983,284 in September 2025 to $1,012,808 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94947 (not a parcel appraisal)
2551 Vineyard Rd · 1 unit · $216,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94947 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,021,699 in September 2024 to $983,284 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94947 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94947 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $993,500 in September 2023 to $1,021,699 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94947 (not a parcel appraisal)
Demolition permit issued (176665)
Recorded status: Issued
Demo & Rebuild (E) Decks T.D. 12-22-23 · Declared valuation: $140,000 · Contractor: Herrera Construction
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
2500 Vineyard Rd · 1 unit
Records span Jul 14, 2023 to Jan 25, 2024 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
1 Rebelo Ln · 1 unit · $6,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Demolition permit application filed (176665)
Current status: Issued
Demo & Rebuild (E) Decks T.D. 12-22-23 · Declared valuation: $140,000 · Contractor: Herrera Construction
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Remodel / interior alteration permit issued (175235)
Recorded status: Issued
Remodel: (2) Baths & (N) Half Bath · Declared valuation: $100,000 · Contractor: Merciari Inc.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94947 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,029,641 in September 2022 to $993,500 in September 2023.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94947 (not a parcel appraisal)
Remodel / interior alteration permit application filed (175235)
Current status: Issued
Remodel: (2) Baths & (N) Half Bath · Declared valuation: $100,000 · Contractor: Merciari Inc.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94947 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $949,991 in September 2021 to $1,029,641 in September 2022.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94947 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94947 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $792,407 in September 2020 to $949,991 in September 2021.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94947 (not a parcel appraisal)
80 Palomino Cir · $275,000 valuation
Records span Aug 9, 2018 to Jan 9, 2019 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Roof replacement permit issued (149135)
Recorded status: Issued
Reroof · Declared valuation: $18,500 · Contractor: Murphy Roofing Consulting
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →Active in "Issued" for 2.9 yr (first record Dec 6, 2023) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.5 yr.
Issued after 5 mo (3.0× the 55d median) — above the 75th percentile for demolition permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 55d, 75th pct 106d, n=130).
In "Applied" for 3.3 yr (since Jul 14, 2023), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
Active in "Issued" for 8.3 yr (first record Aug 9, 2018) with no new permit activity recorded in 7.8 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 2.8 yr (first record Jan 24, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.8 yr.
Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 732 parcels
Small prior baseline
City baseline: 16.4 / 1k
6 in trailing 24m
Includes 2 ADUs
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herrera Construction | Demolition | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $140,000 | 1 vs 2 prior |
| Merciari | Remodel / interior alteration | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $100,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Murphy Roofing Consulting | Roof replacement | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $18,500 | 0 |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Demolition |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94947
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($12,950/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($1,943/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$67,035/yr
Cash needed: $284,900
NOI: $11,543/yr
P&I: $6,548/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,250/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,990/mo | −$5,960/mo | -25.1% | $11,309/mo | −$5,959/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,250/mo | −$5,586/mo | -23.5% | $10,467/mo | −$5,401/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,445/mo | −$5,372/mo | -22.6% | $10,224/mo | −$4,977/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
IssuedDec 6, 2023 – May 17, 2024
We group related permits and State housing reports into projects. That grouping is our inference, not an official record.
Demo & Rebuild (E) Decks T.D. 12-22-23
Remodel: (2) Baths & (N) Half Bath
Reroof
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
0.96 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
176 WILD HORSE VALLEY DR
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 146-241-16. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 146-241-16 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| Owner Recent nearby: 2566 Vineyard Rd (Mar 26, 2019) | Remodel / interior alteration | 5 in ½ mi | $105,640 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Owner Builder Recent nearby: 107 Wild Horse Valley Dr (Jun 21, 2021) | Remodel / interior alteration | 4 in ½ mi | $245,000 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Barkley Builders Recent nearby: 35 Verissimo Dr (Dec 8, 2020) | Remodel / interior alteration | 2 in ½ mi | $700,000 | 1 vs 0 prior |
| Gregory Davis Construction Recent nearby: 124 Wild Horse Valley Dr (Oct 16, 2020) | Remodel / interior alteration | 1 in ½ mi | $700,001 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Marshall White Construction Recent nearby: 165 Wild Horse Valley Dr (Aug 15, 2017) | Addition (adds square footage) | 1 in ½ mi | $300,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Kasten Builders Recent nearby: 10 Palomino Cir (Sep 16, 2015) | Addition (adds square footage) | 1 in ½ mi | $280,000 | 2 vs 5 prior |
| Rasmussen Dv And Son Recent nearby: 80 Palomino Cir (Jan 9, 2019) | Demolition | 1 in ½ mi | $275,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| 130 |
| 11d |
| 55d |
| 106d |
| 261d |
| 80d(vs 56d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) | 316 | 103d | 160d | 249d | 440d | 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alterationOn this parcel | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Roof replacementOn this parcel | 3,663 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.