Novato 94945 · Black Point · APN 157-103-51 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned A2 in Unincorporated Marin and mapped CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $1,457,000 ($1,282,000–$1,632,000).
Public building records show issued construction/renovation work on this parcel (6 total permits, latest May 1, 2026).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 1 proposed or in review.
1 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
84 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
$1,457,000
Benchmark range: $1,282,000 – $1,632,000
Remodel / interior alteration (178574): Issued after 15 mo (5.7× the 83d median) — slower than 90% of remodel / interior alteration permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 83d, 90th pct 266d, n=1,054).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (review-time benchmark)
Closest lead: New home at 5 Bay Canyon Rd (0.11 mi N, applied). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of A2 as agricultural, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Permit issued and active for 8.9 yr (first record Dec 14, 2017), with no completion or new permit record in 8.5 yr. · 1 unit · $450,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 8.9 yr (first record Dec 14, 2017), with no completion or new permit record in 8.5 yr. · 1 unit · $250,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 8.2 yr (first record Aug 23, 2018), with no completion or new permit record in 8.1 yr. · 1 unit · $35,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 8.2 yr (first record Sep 18, 2018), with no completion or new permit record in 7.1 yr. · 1 unit · $600,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 5.5 yr (first record May 5, 2021), with no completion or new permit record in 5.3 yr. · 1 unit · $45,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 3.5 yr (first record May 30, 2023), with no completion or new permit record in 3.5 yr. · 1 unit · $44,888 declared valuation
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,053,344 in September 2025 to $1,063,156 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
Other permit application filed (B46655)
Current status: Issued
Declared valuation: $3,500 · Contractor: Arb Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Other permit issued (B46655)
Recorded status: Issued
Declared valuation: $3,500 · Contractor: Arb Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Addition (adds square footage) permit application filed (93751)
Current status: Applied
Expand Kitchen/Dining; Roof Changes;Related To 178574 · Declared valuation: $20,000
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Remodel / interior alteration permit issued (180413)
Recorded status: Issued
Elevator - Related To 178574 · Declared valuation: $15,000
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Remodel / interior alteration permit application filed (180413)
Current status: Issued
Elevator - Related To 178574 · Declared valuation: $15,000
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,073,876 in September 2024 to $1,053,344 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
Remodel / interior alteration permit issued (178574)
Recorded status: Issued
Addition, Remodel, (N) Storage, Decks, Trellis, & Greenhouse · Declared valuation: $200,000 · Contractor: Owner/Builder
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
5 Bay Canyon Rd · 1 unit · $50,000 valuation
Records span Jul 30, 2024 to Oct 4, 2024 (2 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,040,503 in September 2023 to $1,073,876 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
363 Grandview Ave · 1 unit · $75,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
315 Laurel Ave · 1 unit · $35,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Remodel / interior alteration permit application filed (178574)
Current status: Issued
Addition, Remodel, (N) Storage, Decks, Trellis, & Greenhouse · Declared valuation: $200,000 · Contractor: Owner/Builder
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,070,658 in September 2022 to $1,040,503 in September 2023.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →Issued after 15 mo (5.7× the 83d median) — slower than 90% of remodel / interior alteration permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 83d, 90th pct 266d, n=1,054).
In "Applied" for 2.3 yr (since Jul 30, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
Pending in review for 11 mo (2.2× the 160d median) — above the 75th percentile for addition (adds square footage) permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 160d, 75th pct 249d, n=316).
In "Applied" for 2.5 yr (since Apr 26, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
In "Applied" for 2.8 yr (since Feb 7, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
In "Entitled" for 2 yr (since Nov 13, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owner Builder | New garage / accessory structure | 1 on parcel6 in ½ mi | $1,275,875 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Owner | Remodel / interior alteration | 1 on parcel5 in ½ mi | $312,900 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| All County Electric | Electrical / panel | 1 on parcel |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94945
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($14,550/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($2,183/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$80,906/yr
Cash needed: $320,100
NOI: $7,382/yr
P&I: $7,357/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,000/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,760/mo | −$7,087/mo | -26.6% | $12,652/mo | −$7,109/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,000/mo | −$6,742/mo | -25.3% | $11,711/mo | −$6,594/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,180/mo | −$6,544/mo | -24.5% | $11,439/mo | −$6,203/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
Expand Kitchen/Dining; Roof Changes;Related To 178574
Elevator - Related To 178574
Addition, Remodel, (N) Storage, Decks, Trellis, & Greenhouse
Replace old and damaged wood siding with fiber cement planking to upgrade fire resistance. — Siding Replacement
Install new 200 amp service. Due to wiring to pole bad and service old. — Service Upgrade
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
1.43 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
81 MANZANITA AVE
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 157-103-51. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 157-103-51 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| $3,500 |
| 0 vs 0 prior |
| Arb | Other | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $3,500 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Tj Built Construction Recent nearby: 33 Green Point Ln (Oct 18, 2018) | Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 4 in ½ mi | $835,000 | 0 vs 2 prior |
| William Clark Smith Construction Recent nearby: 66 Manzanita Ave (Oct 21, 2021) | Remodel / interior alteration | 2 in ½ mi | $62,000 | 1 vs 0 prior |
| Bryan Hodes Gen Contractor Recent nearby: 390 Laurel Ave (Sep 16, 2019) | New single-family home | 1 in ½ mi | $465,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Cottonwood Homes Recent nearby: 35 Havenwood Dr (Jan 4, 2021) | New garage / accessory structure | 1 in ½ mi | $430,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Tomrose Construction Recent nearby: 427 Grandview Ave (Sep 6, 2018) | Addition (adds square footage) | 1 in ½ mi | $170,000 | 0 vs 2 prior |
| 316 |
| 103d |
| 160d |
| 249d |
| 440d |
| 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alterationOn this parcel | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Electrical / panelOn this parcel | 3,019 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 2d | 0d |
| Windows / doors / sidingOn this parcel | 1,476 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 5d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.