Novato 94945 · Black Point · APN 157-117-12 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned A2 in Unincorporated Marin and mapped CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $1,245,000 ($1,096,000–$1,394,000).
Public building records show issued construction/renovation work on this parcel (6 total permits, latest Dec 5, 2025).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
72 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
$1,245,000
Benchmark range: $1,096,000 – $1,394,000
Remodel / interior alteration (90568): Pending in review for 3.9 yr (17.4× the 83d median) — slower than 90% of remodel / interior alteration permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 83d, 90th pct 266d, n=1,054).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (review-time benchmark)
Closest lead: Accessory dwelling unit at 315 Laurel Ave (On this parcel, applied). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of A2 as agricultural, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Permit issued and active for 8.2 yr (first record Sep 18, 2018), with no completion or new permit record in 7.1 yr. · 1 unit · $600,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 5.5 yr (first record May 5, 2021), with no completion or new permit record in 5.3 yr. · 1 unit · $45,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 3.5 yr (first record May 30, 2023), with no completion or new permit record in 3.5 yr. · 1 unit · $44,888 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 2.8 yr (since Feb 7, 2024), with no new permit record in 2.8 yr. · 1 unit · $35,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 2.5 yr (since Apr 26, 2024), with no new permit record in 2.5 yr. · 1 unit · $75,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 2.3 yr (since Jul 30, 2024), with no new permit record in 2.1 yr. · 1 unit · $50,000 declared valuation
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,053,344 in September 2025 to $1,063,156 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
Solar / battery storage permit application filed (B45031)
Current status: Issued
Residential roof mount PV solar system; 10 modules; 4.05kW; (1) Tesla Powerwall 3 ESS; with 200A MPU · Declared valuation: $40,620 · Contractor: Bright Planet Solar Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Solar / battery storage permit issued (B45031)
Recorded status: Issued
Residential roof mount PV solar system; 10 modules; 4.05kW; (1) Tesla Powerwall 3 ESS; with 200A MPU · Declared valuation: $40,620 · Contractor: Bright Planet Solar Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,073,876 in September 2024 to $1,053,344 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
Roof replacement permit application filed (B43563)
Current status: Issued
I am taking off the galvanized sheet metal, laying down plywood and roofing paper and reaffixing the galvanized metal sheets to prevent leakage. — ReRoofing · Declared valuation: $500 · Contractor: Owner
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Roof replacement permit issued (B43563)
Recorded status: Issued
I am taking off the galvanized sheet metal, laying down plywood and roofing paper and reaffixing the galvanized metal sheets to prevent leakage. — ReRoofing · Declared valuation: $500 · Contractor: Owner
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
New garage / accessory structure permit issued (178973)
Recorded status: Issued
Legalize Attic Roof Construction - B W O P · Declared valuation: $6,000 · Contractor: Owner/Builder
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
5 Bay Canyon Rd · 1 unit · $50,000 valuation
Records span Jul 30, 2024 to Oct 4, 2024 (2 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,040,503 in September 2023 to $1,073,876 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
363 Grandview Ave · 1 unit · $75,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
315 Laurel Ave · 1 unit · $35,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
New garage / accessory structure permit application filed (178973)
Current status: Issued
Legalize Attic Roof Construction - B W O P · Declared valuation: $6,000 · Contractor: Owner/Builder
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,070,658 in September 2022 to $1,040,503 in September 2023.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
302 Grandview Ave · 1 unit · $44,888 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Remodel / interior alteration permit application filed (90568)
Current status: Applied
Replace Roof Framing Due To Dry Rot, Modify Pitch & Height - B W O P - Addendum To P#165232 · Declared valuation: $5,000
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →Pending in review for 3.9 yr (17.4× the 83d median) — slower than 90% of remodel / interior alteration permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 83d, 90th pct 266d, n=1,054).
Pending in review for 6.6 yr — slower than 90% of roof replacement permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 0d, 90th pct 0d, n=3,663).
In "Applied" for 2.8 yr (since Feb 7, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
In "Applied" for 2.5 yr (since Apr 26, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
Issued after 15 mo (2.7× the 164d median) — above the 75th percentile for new garage / accessory structure permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 164d, 75th pct 294d, n=356).
In "Applied" for 2.3 yr (since Jul 30, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owner | Remodel / interior alteration | 3 on parcel7 in ½ mi | $310,500 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Owner Builder | New garage / accessory structure | 1 on parcel6 in ½ mi | $1,275,875 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Bright Planet Solar | Solar / battery storage | 1 on parcel |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| New garage / accessory structureOn this parcel | 356 | 104d | 164d | 294d | 485d | 159d(vs 205d prior) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94945
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($12,450/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($1,868/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$65,748/yr
Cash needed: $273,900
NOI: $9,797/yr
P&I: $6,295/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,000/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,760/mo | −$5,824/mo | -25.5% | $10,889/mo | −$5,829/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,000/mo | −$5,479/mo | -24.0% | $10,079/mo | −$5,314/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,180/mo | −$5,281/mo | -23.1% | $9,845/mo | −$4,923/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
Residential roof mount PV solar system; 10 modules; 4.05kW; (1) Tesla Powerwall 3 ESS; with 200A MPU
I am taking off the galvanized sheet metal, laying down plywood and roofing paper and reaffixing the galvanized metal sheets to prevent leakage. — ReRoofing
Legalize Attic Roof Construction - B W O P
Replace Roof Framing Due To Dry Rot, Modify Pitch & Height - B W O P - Addendum To P#165232
We want to put an Electrical Vehicle charging station at this location.It is a single family home. — EV Charging Station
Reroof Gar/Workshop (Det) Only, O K Per Cristy Stanley
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
0.17 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
315 LAUREL AVE
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 157-117-12. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 157-117-12 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| $40,620 |
| 0 vs 0 prior |
| William Clark Smith Construction Recent nearby: 66 Manzanita Ave (Oct 21, 2021) | Remodel / interior alteration | 2 in ½ mi | $62,000 | 1 vs 0 prior |
| Bryan Hodes Gen Contractor Recent nearby: 390 Laurel Ave (Sep 16, 2019) | New single-family home | 1 in ½ mi | $465,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Tomrose Construction Recent nearby: 427 Grandview Ave (Sep 6, 2018) | Addition (adds square footage) | 1 in ½ mi | $170,000 | 0 vs 2 prior |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) | 316 | 103d | 160d | 249d | 440d | 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alterationOn this parcel | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Solar / battery storageOn this parcel | 2,977 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 2d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.