Novato 94949 · Bel Marin Keys · APN 157-231-12 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned RMP-12.45-BFC in Unincorporated Marin with likely ministerial ADU eligibility and zero mapped flood, fire, or fault hazard overlaps; benchmark value $1,186,000 ($1,044,000–$1,328,000).
Zone RMP-12.45-BFC allows residential use qualifying for ministerial ADU review under state law.
Source: Unincorporated Marin zoning · CA Gov. Code 66314
On-parcel permit history is indexed through Jun 3, 2026, letting you verify roof, HVAC, electrical, or structural work against seller disclosures.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: 0.2% annual chance flood hazard (shaded X). Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
128 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
$1,186,000
Benchmark range: $1,044,000 – $1,328,000
Closest lead: Demolition at 1051 Bel Marin Keys Blvd (0.41 mi E, issued). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Sale triggers reassessment to 1.00% base + ~0.15% voter debt (~$1,174/mo). Confirm exact Mello-Roos / CFD special assessments on the county tax bill.
Source: CA Const. Art. XIIIA (Prop 13) · County Tax Collector
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
No ADU or new-home permits recorded within ¼ mile in this window.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of RMP-12.45-BFC as multifamily residential, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Permit issued and active for 11.6 yr (first record Mar 25, 2015), with no completion or new permit record in 11.6 yr. · $4,860 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 8.5 yr (first record May 21, 2018), with no completion or new permit record in 8.4 yr. · $50,000 declared valuation
Nearby other (51 Del Oro Lagoon): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B49078 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby other (188 Caribe Isle): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B49032 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby windows / doors / siding (934 Bel Marin Keys Blvd): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48879 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby other (15 Dolphin Isle): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48945 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,191,440 in September 2025 to $1,207,546 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94949 (not a parcel appraisal)
Roof replacement permit application filed (B47006)
Current status: Issued
ReRoofing · Declared valuation: $6,300 · Contractor: Bradshaw Roofing Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Roof replacement permit issued (B47006)
Recorded status: Issued
ReRoofing · Declared valuation: $6,300 · Contractor: Bradshaw Roofing Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94949 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,198,925 in September 2024 to $1,191,440 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94949 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94949 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,163,503 in September 2023 to $1,198,925 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94949 (not a parcel appraisal)
Other permit application filed (B38140)
Current status: Issued
Scope of Work for Kitchen Remodel: Remove partition wall Relocate washer and dryer Install kitchen island Install tall cabinet · Declared valuation: $30,000 · Contractor: V M G Renovation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Other permit issued (B38140)
Recorded status: Issued
Scope of Work for Kitchen Remodel: Remove partition wall Relocate washer and dryer Install kitchen island Install tall cabinet · Declared valuation: $30,000 · Contractor: V M G Renovation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
HVAC / heat pump permit application filed (B37172)
Current status: Issued
Heat Pump Installation — Replace Mechanical Appliance · Declared valuation: $15,300 · Contractor: North Hvac Services
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
HVAC / heat pump permit issued (B37172)
Recorded status: Issued
Heat Pump Installation — Replace Mechanical Appliance · Declared valuation: $15,300 · Contractor: North Hvac Services
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Windows / doors / siding permit application filed (B36923)
Current status: Issued
All of the following work will be done by Save Energy Windows & Doors (licensed contractor). - Replace original wood door with Therma Tru Fiberglass Door System, with a new construction install. - Replace five original single pane aluminum windows with Simonton vinyl WUI wildfire tempered glass dual pane windows. All five windows will be retrofit installed. - Replace original single pane sliding glass aluminum patio door with Simonton Narrow Frame Sliding Patio Door with WUI wildfire tempered glass. The sliding glass door will be installed as a new construction install. — Non-structural Door/Window Replacement · Declared valuation: $16,281 · Contractor: Owner
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Windows / doors / siding permit issued (B36923)
Recorded status: Issued
All of the following work will be done by Save Energy Windows & Doors (licensed contractor). - Replace original wood door with Therma Tru Fiberglass Door System, with a new construction install. - Replace five original single pane aluminum windows with Simonton vinyl WUI wildfire tempered glass dual pane windows. All five windows will be retrofit installed. - Replace original single pane sliding glass aluminum patio door with Simonton Narrow Frame Sliding Patio Door with WUI wildfire tempered glass. The sliding glass door will be installed as a new construction install. — Non-structural Door/Window Replacement · Declared valuation: $16,281 · Contractor: Owner
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →Active in "Issued" for 8.5 yr (first record May 21, 2018) with no new permit activity recorded in 8.4 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 11.6 yr (first record Mar 25, 2015) with no new permit activity recorded in 11.6 yr.
Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 741 parcels
Small prior baseline
City baseline: 16.4 / 1k
7 in trailing 24m
Includes 0 ADUs
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owner | Remodel / interior alteration | 1 on parcel10 in ½ mi | $337,981 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Vmg Renovation | Other | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $30,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| North HVAC Services | HVAC / heat pump | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $15,300 |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94949
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($11,850/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($1,778/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Insurance & hazard context:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$56,150/yr
Cash needed: $260,700
NOI: $15,754/yr
P&I: $5,992/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,425/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $3,151/mo | −$5,073/mo | -23.3% | $10,232/mo | −$5,045/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,425/mo | −$4,679/mo | -21.5% | $9,470/mo | −$4,457/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,631/mo | −$4,453/mo | -20.5% | $9,251/mo | −$4,010/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
ReRoofing
Scope of Work for Kitchen Remodel: Remove partition wall Relocate washer and dryer Install kitchen island Install tall cabinet
Heat Pump Installation — Replace Mechanical Appliance
All of the following work will be done by Save Energy Windows & Doors (licensed contractor). - Replace original wood door with Therma Tru Fiberglass Door System, with a new construction install. - Replace five original single pane aluminum windows with Simonton vinyl WUI wildfire tempered glass dual pane windows. All five windows will be retrofit installed. - Replace original single pane sliding glass aluminum patio door with Simonton Narrow Frame Sliding Patio Door with WUI wildfire tempered glass. The sliding glass door will be installed as a new construction install. — Non-structural Door/Window Replacement
Replace 100 amp sub panel — Replace Circuits / Outlets
1 window and 1 patio door to install — Non-structural Door/Window Replacement
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
0.03 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
922 BEL MARIN KEYS BLVD
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 157-231-12. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 157-231-12 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| Jemico | Windows / doors / siding | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $10,972 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Bradshaw Roofing | Roof replacement | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $6,300 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Integrity Electric | Electrical / panel | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $1,500 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Owner Builder Recent nearby: 144 Montego Key (Jun 5, 2025) | Remodel / interior alteration | 18 in ½ mi | $876,197 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Rafael Home Services Recent nearby: 99 Del Oro Lagoon (Mar 28, 2025) | Remodel / interior alteration | 2 in ½ mi | $650,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Yonts Construction Recent nearby: 78 Del Oro Lagoon (Apr 18, 2019) | Addition (adds square footage) | 2 in ½ mi | $315,000 | 1 vs 1 prior |
| Whitcomb Construction Recent nearby: 132 Montego Key (May 3, 2023) | Remodel / interior alteration | 2 in ½ mi | $68,435 | 0 vs 2 prior |
| 316 |
| 103d |
| 160d |
| 249d |
| 440d |
| 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alteration | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Roof replacementOn this parcel | 3,663 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d |
| HVAC / heat pumpOn this parcel | 2,946 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.