San Rafael 94903 · Lucas Valley · APN 164-570-15 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned RMP-0.345 in Unincorporated Marin with likely ministerial ADU eligibility and mapped CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $1,506,000 ($1,325,000–$1,687,000).
Zone RMP-0.345 allows residential use qualifying for ministerial ADU review under state law (1 ADU permit permitted within ¼ mile in 36 months).
Source: Unincorporated Marin zoning · CA Gov. Code 66314
Public building records show issued construction/renovation work on this parcel (5 total permits, latest Oct 15, 2025).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 1 permitted.
1 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
164 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
$1,506,000
Benchmark range: $1,325,000 – $1,687,000
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Closest lead: Accessory dwelling unit at 1 Golden Lily Pl (0.24 mi SW, applied). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Sale triggers reassessment to 1.00% base + ~0.15% voter debt (~$1,481/mo). Confirm exact Mello-Roos / CFD special assessments on the county tax bill.
Source: CA Const. Art. XIIIA (Prop 13) · County Tax Collector
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of RMP-0.345 as multifamily residential, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Permit issued and active for 10.6 yr (first record Apr 5, 2016), with no completion or new permit record in 10.6 yr. · $18,500 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 5.5 yr (since Apr 30, 2021), with no new permit record in 5.5 yr. · 1 unit · $250,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 4.8 yr (since Jan 20, 2022), with no new permit record in 4.8 yr. · 1 unit · $75,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 4.4 yr (since Jun 7, 2022), with no new permit record in 4.4 yr. · $80,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 2.6 yr (first record Mar 25, 2024), with no completion or new permit record in 2.6 yr. · 1 unit · $9,700 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 3.3 yr (first record Jul 19, 2023), with no completion or new permit record in 2.5 yr. · 1 unit · $375,000 declared valuation
Nearby plumbing / water heater / sewer (14 Mt Rainier Ct): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48988 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby other (15 Silver Pine Ter): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48938 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,200,587 in September 2025 to $1,250,063 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94903 (not a parcel appraisal)
150 Mt Whitney Ct (Adu 150a) · 1 unit · $250,000 valuation
Records span Oct 22, 2025 to Apr 10, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
HVAC / heat pump permit application filed (B44379)
Current status: Issued
REMOVE FURNACE, INSTALL 2 ZONE MINISPLIT. — Replace Mechanical Appliance · Declared valuation: $17,000 · Contractor: John Owens Services Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
HVAC / heat pump permit issued (B44379)
Recorded status: Issued
REMOVE FURNACE, INSTALL 2 ZONE MINISPLIT. — Replace Mechanical Appliance · Declared valuation: $17,000 · Contractor: John Owens Services Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94903 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,237,445 in September 2024 to $1,200,587 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94903 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94903 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,210,123 in September 2023 to $1,237,445 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94903 (not a parcel appraisal)
11 Mt Burney Ct (Adu 11a) · 1 unit · $375,000 valuation
Records span Jul 19, 2023 to May 2, 2024 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
12 Red Cedar Ct · 1 unit · $9,700 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94903 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,252,503 in September 2022 to $1,210,123 in September 2023.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94903 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94903 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,141,413 in September 2021 to $1,252,503 in September 2022.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94903 (not a parcel appraisal)
2000 Lucas Valley Rd · $80,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
HVAC / heat pump permit application filed (B29760)
Current status: Issued
Remove existing 50 gallon water heater and haul away. Remove 12” HVAC conduit near the existing water heater and haul away. Supply and install an AO Smith HPTU 66N/Similar 66g Voltex Residential Hybrid Electric Pump. — Replace Plumbing Fixtures(s) · Declared valuation: $3,150 · Contractor: Zaragoza Plumbing Team Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
HVAC / heat pump permit issued (B29760)
Recorded status: Issued
Remove existing 50 gallon water heater and haul away. Remove 12” HVAC conduit near the existing water heater and haul away. Supply and install an AO Smith HPTU 66N/Similar 66g Voltex Residential Hybrid Electric Pump. — Replace Plumbing Fixtures(s) · Declared valuation: $3,150 · Contractor: Zaragoza Plumbing Team Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →In "Applied" for 4.8 yr (since Jan 20, 2022), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
In "Applied" for 5.5 yr (since Apr 30, 2021), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
In "Applied" for 4.4 yr (since Jun 7, 2022), exceeding the 55d median and 261d 90th percentile for demolition permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=130).
Active in "Issued" for 3.3 yr (first record Jul 19, 2023) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.5 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 10.6 yr (first record Apr 5, 2016) with no new permit activity recorded in 10.6 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 2.6 yr (first record Mar 25, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.6 yr.
Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 768 parcels
Small prior baseline
City baseline: 16.4 / 1k
10 in trailing 24m
Includes 3 ADUs
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunpower | Solar / battery storage | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $45,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Legacy Electrical Service | Solar / battery storage | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $19,098 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| John Owens Services | HVAC / heat pump | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $17,000 | 0 |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94903
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($15,050/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($2,258/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$73,601/yr
Cash needed: $331,100
NOI: $17,720/yr
P&I: $7,610/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $4,175/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $3,841/mo | −$6,613/mo | -24.0% | $13,072/mo | −$6,592/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $4,175/mo | −$6,133/mo | -22.2% | $12,099/mo | −$5,875/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $4,426/mo | −$5,858/mo | -21.2% | $11,818/mo | −$5,330/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
REMOVE FURNACE, INSTALL 2 ZONE MINISPLIT. — Replace Mechanical Appliance
Remove existing 50 gallon water heater and haul away. Remove 12” HVAC conduit near the existing water heater and haul away. Supply and install an AO Smith HPTU 66N/Similar 66g Voltex Residential Hybrid Electric Pump. — Replace Plumbing Fixtures(s)
Energy Storage System
Installing Mitsubishi Mini Split Heat Pump. — Mechanical Appliance
P V Sys 8.28 K W Rf Mt - Express
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
0.50 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
49 BRIDGEGATE DR
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 164-570-15. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 164-570-15 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| Bellows Plumbing Heating And Air | HVAC / heat pump | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $11,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Zaragoza Plumbing Team | HVAC / heat pump | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $3,150 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Owner Builder Recent nearby: 36 Bridgegate Dr (Apr 11, 2025) | Remodel / interior alteration | 17 in ½ mi | $1,104,650 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Owner Recent nearby: 1349 Idylberry Rd (Aug 22, 2019) | Remodel / interior alteration | 6 in ½ mi | $444,000 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Landmark Bldrs Recent nearby: 38 Oak Mountain Ct (Nov 23, 2020) | New garage / accessory structure | 5 in ½ mi | $430,500 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Rempe Steve General Contr Recent nearby: 3 Golden Lily Pl (Nov 2, 2015) | Remodel / interior alteration | 3 in ½ mi | $769,881 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Tim Lawlor Construction Recent nearby: 1 Mt Rainier Ct (May 10, 2022) | Remodel / interior alteration | 2 in ½ mi | $478,000 | 0 vs 1 prior |
| 316 |
| 103d |
| 160d |
| 249d |
| 440d |
| 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alteration | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Solar / battery storageOn this parcel | 2,977 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 2d | 0d |
| HVAC / heat pumpOn this parcel | 2,946 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.