Forest Knolls 94933 · Forest Knolls · APN 169-021-72 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned R1-B2-SGV in Unincorporated Marin with likely ministerial ADU eligibility and mapped FEMA A flood / CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $902,000 ($794,000–$1,010,000).
Zone R1-B2-SGV allows residential use qualifying for ministerial ADU review under state law (1 ADU permit permitted within ¼ mile in 36 months).
Source: Unincorporated Marin zoning · CA Gov. Code 66314
On-parcel permit history is indexed through May 6, 2026, letting you verify roof, HVAC, electrical, or structural work against seller disclosures.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
Zone A: 1% annual chance flood (Special Flood Hazard Area) overlaps this parcel. Expect mandatory flood insurance for federally backed loans and floodplain elevation/mitigation rules for new units or SB 9 applications.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 3 permitted.
3 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
93 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
$902,000
Benchmark range: $794,000 – $1,010,000
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Closest lead: Accessory dwelling unit at 8 Morelos Ave (240 ft SW, issued). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Sale triggers reassessment to 1.00% base + ~0.15% voter debt (~$902/mo). Confirm exact Mello-Roos / CFD special assessments on the county tax bill.
Source: CA Const. Art. XIIIA (Prop 13) · County Tax Collector
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of R1-B2-SGV as single-family residential, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Permit issued and active for 11.9 yr (first record Dec 10, 2014), with no completion or new permit record in 11.9 yr. · $4,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 12.3 yr (first record Aug 11, 2014), with no completion or new permit record in 11.8 yr. · 1 unit · $222,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 12.5 yr (first record May 29, 2014), with no completion or new permit record in 11.5 yr. · 1 unit · $619,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 10.2 yr (first record Aug 31, 2016), with no completion or new permit record in 9.7 yr. · 1 unit · $50,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 9.9 yr (first record Dec 28, 2016), with no completion or new permit record in 8.9 yr. · $8,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 11.7 yr (first record Feb 26, 2015), with no completion or new permit record in 8.7 yr. · 1 unit · $79,000 declared valuation
Nearby plumbing / water heater / sewer (116 Forest Dr): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48951 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby roof replacement (259 Castro St): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48919 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby other (2 Juarez Ave): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48908 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $810,654 in September 2025 to $863,910 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94933 (not a parcel appraisal)
Roof replacement permit application filed (B46687)
Current status: Issued
ReRoofing · Declared valuation: $7,500 · Contractor: Sersiv Roofing Corporation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Roof replacement permit issued (B46687)
Recorded status: Issued
ReRoofing · Declared valuation: $7,500 · Contractor: Sersiv Roofing Corporation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
6956 Sir Francis Drake Blvd (J A D U 6956a & A D U 6956b) · 1 unit · $400,000 valuation
Records span Mar 6, 2024 to Apr 23, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94933 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $856,056 in September 2024 to $810,654 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94933 (not a parcel appraisal)
350 Montezuma Ave · 1 unit · $270,454 valuation
Records span Feb 25, 2022 to Jun 27, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
22 (22a) Sage Ln · 1 unit · $35,000 valuation
Records span Dec 12, 2022 to May 29, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94933 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $861,171 in September 2023 to $856,056 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94933 (not a parcel appraisal)
Electrical / panel permit application filed (B38011)
Current status: Issued
Install electrical circuit from main panel to septic system control box — New Circuits / Outlets · Declared valuation: $500 · Contractor: Anchor Electric
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Electrical / panel permit issued (B38011)
Recorded status: Issued
Install electrical circuit from main panel to septic system control box — New Circuits / Outlets · Declared valuation: $500 · Contractor: Anchor Electric
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
6956 Sir Francis Drake Blvd · $26,000 valuation
Records span Jan 10, 2024 to Feb 28, 2024 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Electrical / panel permit application filed (B35935)
Current status: Issued
main panel upgrade — Service Upgrade · Declared valuation: $8,735 · Contractor: Ielmorini Electric
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →Active in "Issued" for 6.1 yr (first record Oct 8, 2020) with no new permit activity recorded in 6.1 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 2.8 yr (first record Jan 10, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.7 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 9.9 yr (first record Dec 28, 2016) with no new permit activity recorded in 8.9 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 12.3 yr (first record Aug 11, 2014) with no new permit activity recorded in 11.8 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 10.2 yr (first record Aug 31, 2016) with no new permit activity recorded in 9.7 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 5.2 yr (first record Aug 24, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 4.1 yr.
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ielmorini Electric | Electrical / panel | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $8,735 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Sersiv Roofing | Roof replacement | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $7,500 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Anchor Electric | Electrical / panel | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $500 | 0 |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94933
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($9,000/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($1,350/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$30,165/yr
Cash needed: $198,000
NOI: $24,445/yr
P&I: $4,551/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $4,150/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $3,818/mo | −$2,991/mo | -18.1% | $7,993/mo | −$2,922/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $4,150/mo | −$2,514/mo | -15.2% | $7,398/mo | −$2,210/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $4,399/mo | −$2,240/mo | -13.6% | $7,226/mo | −$1,669/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
ReRoofing
Install electrical circuit from main panel to septic system control box — New Circuits / Outlets
main panel upgrade — Service Upgrade
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
0.17 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
15 MORELOS AVE
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 169-021-72. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 169-021-72 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| Owner Builder Recent nearby: 95 Sanchez Rd (Sep 10, 2025) | Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 10 in ½ mi | $948,689 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Owner Recent nearby: 350 Montezuma Ave (Jun 27, 2025) | New single-family home | 8 in ½ mi | $1,089,974 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Zia Designs Recent nearby: 2 Juarez Ave (Dec 6, 2017) | Demolition | 2 in ½ mi | $163,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Rebuilding Together East Bay Network Recent nearby: 6956 Sir Francis Drake Blvd (J A D U 6956a & A D U 6956b) (Apr 23, 2026) | Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 1 in ½ mi | $400,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Hope Construction Recent nearby: 42 Arroyo Rd (Feb 2, 2015) | New single-family home | 1 in ½ mi | $222,000 | 0 vs 1 prior |
| Nonpareil Construction Recent nearby: 6825 Sir Francis Drake Blvd #B (Dec 30, 2019) | Commercial tenant improvement | 1 in ½ mi | $180,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Brownco Construction And Dev Recent nearby: 145 Tamal Rd (Apr 2, 2020) | Commercial tenant improvement | 1 in ½ mi | $150,000 | 0 vs 1 prior |
| 316 |
| 103d |
| 160d |
| 249d |
| 440d |
| 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alteration | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Roof replacementOn this parcel | 3,663 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d |
| Electrical / panelOn this parcel | 3,019 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 2d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.