San Rafael 94903 · Los Ranchitos · APN 179-241-15 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned A2-B4 in Unincorporated Marin and mapped CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (local responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $1,583,000 ($1,393,000–$1,773,000).
Public building records show issued construction/renovation work on this parcel (4 total permits, latest Aug 19, 2026).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
8 substantial renovation & housing permits over 24 months (45.7 per 1,000 parcels vs. 16.4 citywide baseline) (#17 of 22 neighborhoods).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (Los Ranchitos)
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 2 homes completed, 4 permitted, 1 proposed or in review.
7 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
89 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
$1,583,000
Benchmark range: $1,393,000 – $1,773,000
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Mar 24, 2025)
Closest lead: New home at 32 Ranch Rd (0.19 mi SE, issued). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Sale triggers reassessment to 1.00% base + ~0.15% voter debt (~$1,555/mo). Confirm exact Mello-Roos / CFD special assessments on the county tax bill.
Source: CA Const. Art. XIIIA (Prop 13) · County Tax Collector
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of A2-B4 as agricultural, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Permit issued and active for 10.5 yr (first record May 11, 2016), with no completion or new permit record in 10.3 yr. · $40,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 10.4 yr (first record Jun 27, 2016), with no completion or new permit record in 10 yr. · 1 unit · $903,650 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 9.1 yr (first record Oct 9, 2017), with no completion or new permit record in 9.1 yr. · $2,000 declared valuation
In "Entitled" for 7.6 yr (since Apr 24, 2019), with no new permit record in 7.6 yr. · 1 unit
In "Entitled" for 5.9 yr (since Dec 2, 2020), with no new permit record in 5.9 yr. · 1 unit
Permit issued and active for 4.6 yr (first record Mar 22, 2022), with no completion or new permit record in 4.5 yr. · $48,000 declared valuation
Record 94610 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby windows / doors / siding (4 Ranch Rd): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B49076 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby other (25 Knoll Way): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B49027 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby roof replacement (25 Knoll Way): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48987 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby roof replacement (1 Knoll Way): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48940 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Record 94610 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
16 Oak Ridge Rd · 1 unit · $200,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,200,587 in September 2025 to $1,250,063 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94903 (not a parcel appraisal)
Remodel / interior alteration permit application filed (94459)
Current status: Applied
The Project Is The Conversion Of An (E) Unconditioned 1650 Sf Barn Into An A D U. · Declared valuation: $225,000
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
HVAC / heat pump permit application filed (B46828)
Current status: Issued
Replace Ductwork, Replace Mechanical Appliance · Declared valuation: $25,000 · Contractor: Hassler Heating And Airconditioning Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
HVAC / heat pump permit issued (B46828)
Recorded status: Issued
Replace Ductwork, Replace Mechanical Appliance · Declared valuation: $25,000 · Contractor: Hassler Heating And Airconditioning Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
17 Debes Ranch Rd · 1 unit · $200,000 valuation
Records span Nov 10, 2025 to Mar 4, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94903 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,237,445 in September 2024 to $1,200,587 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94903 (not a parcel appraisal)
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →Active in "Issued" for 10.4 yr (first record Jun 27, 2016) with no new permit activity recorded in 10 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $903,650 declared valuation across 1 permit).
In "Applied" for 4.7 yr (since Feb 28, 2022), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
In "Applied" for 4 yr (since Nov 16, 2022), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
In "Entitled" for 7.6 yr (since Apr 24, 2019), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
In "Entitled" for 5.9 yr (since Dec 2, 2020), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
Active in "Issued" for 4.9 yr (first record Dec 30, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.3 yr.
Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 175 parcels
Small prior baseline
City baseline: 16.4 / 1k
8 in trailing 24m
Includes 2 ADUs
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Architectural Metal | Roof replacement | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $201,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| High Definition Solar | Solar / battery storage | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $78,525 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Hassler Heating And Airconditioning | HVAC / heat pump | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $25,000 |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94903
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($15,850/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($2,378/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$79,376/yr
Cash needed: $348,700
NOI: $16,800/yr
P&I: $8,015/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $4,175/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $3,841/mo | −$7,094/mo | -24.4% | $13,744/mo | −$7,079/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $4,175/mo | −$6,615/mo | -22.8% | $12,721/mo | −$6,363/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $4,426/mo | −$6,339/mo | -21.8% | $12,426/mo | −$5,817/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
The Project Is The Conversion Of An (E) Unconditioned 1650 Sf Barn Into An A D U.
Replace Ductwork, Replace Mechanical Appliance
Install (25) 405W PV Panels; Install (3) ESS Batteries (15kW Total); Install (N) 200A Main Service Panel
SUPPLY AND INSTALL NEW METAL ROOF ON HOME AND BARN — ReRoofing
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
0.97 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
16 FARM RD
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 179-241-15. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 179-241-15 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| Owner Builder Recent nearby: 17 Debes Ranch Rd (May 4, 2026) | New garage / accessory structure | 20 in ½ mi | $3,625,110 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Owner Recent nearby: 130 Oak View Dr (Jun 4, 2025) | Demolition | 5 in ½ mi | $484,500 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| New Dimension Recent nearby: 32 Ranch Rd (Dec 28, 2017) | New garage / accessory structure | 4 in ½ mi | $1,300,500 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| G Family Recent nearby: 10 Glenside Way (Aug 31, 2026) | Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 3 in ½ mi | $1,190,000 | 13 vs 8 prior+63% |
| Hamta Partners Recent nearby: 90 Oak Ridge Rd (Dec 13, 2024) | Remodel / interior alteration | 2 in ½ mi | $585,000 | 2 vs 0 prior |
| Luxury Construction Recent nearby: 2 Farm Rd (May 5, 2022) | Addition (adds square footage) | 2 in ½ mi | $448,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Peterson Construction And Development Recent nearby: 114 Circle Rd (Apr 25, 2018) | New garage / accessory structure | 2 in ½ mi | $285,000 | 0 vs 4 prior |
| 316 |
| 103d |
| 160d |
| 249d |
| 440d |
| 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alterationOn this parcel | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Solar / battery storageOn this parcel | 2,977 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 2d | 0d |
| Roof replacementOn this parcel | 3,663 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.