Bolinas 94924 · Bolinas · APN 192-081-18 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned C-RA-B2 in Unincorporated Marin with likely ministerial ADU eligibility and mapped CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $2,210,000 ($1,945,000–$2,475,000).
Zone C-RA-B2 allows residential use qualifying for ministerial ADU review under state law (1 ADU permit permitted within ¼ mile in 36 months).
Source: Unincorporated Marin zoning · CA Gov. Code 66314
Public building records show issued construction/renovation work on this parcel (2 total permits, latest Jun 16, 2025).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 2 permitted, 2 proposed or in review; 1 demolition; 1 commercial or mixed-use project.
6 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
60 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
$2,210,000
Benchmark range: $1,945,000 – $2,475,000
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Closest lead: New home at 161 Elm Rd (0.32 mi SE, issued). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Sale triggers reassessment to 1.00% base + ~0.15% voter debt (~$2,155/mo). Confirm exact Mello-Roos / CFD special assessments on the county tax bill.
Source: CA Const. Art. XIIIA (Prop 13) · County Tax Collector
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of C-RA-B2 as single-family residential, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Permit issued and active for 11.4 yr (first record Jun 4, 2015), with no completion or new permit record in 11.1 yr. · 1 unit · $200,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 10.4 yr (first record Jul 5, 2016), with no completion or new permit record in 10.1 yr. · 1 unit · $229,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 7.1 yr (first record Oct 15, 2019), with no completion or new permit record in 7 yr. · $75,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 6.1 yr (first record Sep 22, 2020), with no completion or new permit record in 5.1 yr. · 1 unit · $80,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 6.1 yr (first record Sep 22, 2020), with no completion or new permit record in 5.1 yr. · 1 unit · $96,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 3.6 yr (since Apr 4, 2023), with no new permit record in 3.6 yr. · 1 unit · $85,000 declared valuation
Nearby accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) (460 Fern Rd): No longer present in latest agency feed
Record 93841 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby other (460 Fern Rd): No longer present in latest agency feed
Record 94065 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby other (460 Fern Rd (A D U 460 A)): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 182819 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby other (460 Fern Rd): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 182820 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
225 Hawthorne Rd · $10,000 valuation
Records span Dec 11, 2025 to Oct 19, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,796,016 in September 2025 to $1,954,560 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94924 (not a parcel appraisal)
185 Kale Rd · 1 unit · $200,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
160 Mesa Rd · $168,372 valuation
Records span May 21, 2025 to Aug 6, 2026 (2 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
185 Iris Rd (Adu 150 Juniper Rd) · 1 unit · $119,520 valuation
Records span May 23, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94924 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,016,418 in September 2024 to $1,796,016 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94924 (not a parcel appraisal)
Solar / battery storage permit issued (179447)
Recorded status: Issued
Ground Mount Solar System 18.040kw · Declared valuation: $65,900 · Contractor: H C I Solar
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Solar / battery storage permit application filed (179447)
Current status: Issued
Ground Mount Solar System 18.040kw · Declared valuation: $65,900 · Contractor: H C I Solar
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Electrical / panel permit application filed (B42194)
Current status: Issued
Main Panel Upgrade 125A — Service Upgrade · Declared valuation: $4,000 · Contractor: H C I Solar
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Electrical / panel permit issued (B42194)
Recorded status: Issued
Main Panel Upgrade 125A — Service Upgrade · Declared valuation: $4,000 · Contractor: H C I Solar
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
460 Fern Rd · 1 unit · $50,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →Active in "Issued" for 5 yr (first record Nov 17, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.2 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $950,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
Active in "Issued" for 3.2 yr (first record Aug 24, 2023) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.3 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $850,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
In "Applied" for 3.6 yr (since Apr 4, 2023), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
Active in "Issued" for 7.1 yr (first record Oct 15, 2019) with no new permit activity recorded in 7 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 11.4 yr (first record Jun 4, 2015) with no new permit activity recorded in 11.1 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 4.1 yr (first record Sep 28, 2022) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.1 yr.
Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 1,181 parcels
Small prior baseline
City baseline: 16.4 / 1k
12 in trailing 24m
Includes 6 ADUs
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hci Solar | Electrical / panel | 2 on parcel2 in ½ mi | $69,900 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Owner Builder Recent nearby: 225 Hawthorne Rd (Oct 19, 2026) | New garage / accessory structure | 8 in ½ mi | $1,354,222 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Vida Building Merged: VIDA BUILDING SYSTEMS · VIDA BUILDING SYSTEMS INC Recent nearby: 230 Ocean Pkwy (Feb 6, 2025) |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94924
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($22,100/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($3,315/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$135,401/yr
Cash needed: $486,200
NOI: -$1,301/yr
P&I: $11,175/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,000/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,760/mo | −$11,628/mo | -28.7% | $18,991/mo | −$11,710/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,000/mo | −$11,283/mo | -27.8% | $17,578/mo | −$11,195/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,180/mo | −$11,086/mo | -27.4% | $17,170/mo | −$10,804/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
Ground Mount Solar System 18.040kw
Main Panel Upgrade 125A — Service Upgrade
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
1.25 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
445 CEDAR RD
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 192-081-18. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 192-081-18 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| New garage / accessory structure |
| 5 in ½ mi |
| $965,000 |
| 3 vs 2 prior |
| Owner Recent nearby: 120 Cedar Rd (Oct 7, 2021) | Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 4 in ½ mi | $1,315,263 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Upscale Construction Recent nearby: 160 Iris Rd (May 20, 2021) | Demolition | 3 in ½ mi | $2,009,100 | 1 vs 0 prior |
| Wick Brothers Construction Recent nearby: 368 Overlook Dr (Oct 18, 2016) | Addition (adds square footage) | 3 in ½ mi | $886,500 | 1 vs 2 prior |
| Natomas Labs Dba Villa Homes Recent nearby: 185 Iris Rd (Adu 150 Juniper Rd) (Oct 31, 2025) | New single-family home | 3 in ½ mi | $295,200 | 1 vs 5 prior |
| Nemec Construction Recent nearby: 182 Hawthorne Rd (Oct 7, 2019) | New garage / accessory structure | 2 in ½ mi | $230,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Peter Smith Construction Recent nearby: 169 Elm Rd (Aka 196a) (Oct 31, 2023) | Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 2 in ½ mi | $150,000 | 0 vs 1 prior |
| Peacock Roger S Jr Recent nearby: 210 Laurel Rd (Sep 9, 2015) | Addition (adds square footage) | 2 in ½ mi | $140,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| 316 |
| 103d |
| 160d |
| 249d |
| 440d |
| 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alteration | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Solar / battery storageOn this parcel | 2,977 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 2d | 0d |
| Electrical / panelOn this parcel | 3,019 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 2d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.