Bolinas 94924 · Bolinas · APN 193-133-48 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned C-RA-B4 in Unincorporated Marin with likely ministerial ADU eligibility and mapped CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) / Alquist-Priolo fault due diligence; benchmark value $2,193,000 ($1,930,000–$2,456,000).
Zone C-RA-B4 allows residential use qualifying for ministerial ADU review under state law (2 ADU permits permitted within ¼ mile in 36 months).
Source: Unincorporated Marin zoning · CA Gov. Code 66314
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 3 permitted, 1 proposed or in review; 1 demolition; 1 commercial or mixed-use project.
7 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
61 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
$2,193,000
Benchmark range: $1,930,000 – $2,456,000
Intersects a State-mapped surface fault rupture zone. Adding habitable structures or subdividing typically requires a site-specific geologic fault investigation.
Source: California Geological Survey Alquist-Priolo Zones
Closest lead: New home at 52 Crescente Ave (0.24 mi NE, applied). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of C-RA-B4 as single-family residential, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
In "Applied" for 11.1 yr (since Oct 22, 2015), with no new permit record in 11.1 yr. · $20,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 10.4 yr (first record Jul 5, 2016), with no completion or new permit record in 10.1 yr. · 1 unit · $229,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 10.7 yr (first record Mar 8, 2016), with no completion or new permit record in 5.6 yr. · 1 unit · $125,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 5 yr (first record Nov 17, 2021), with no completion or new permit record in 3.2 yr. · 1 unit · $950,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 5.5 yr (first record May 13, 2021), with no completion or new permit record in 3.1 yr. · $1,980,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 2.3 yr (since Jul 11, 2024), with no new permit record in 2.3 yr. · 1 unit · $2,750,000 declared valuation
Nearby commercial tenant improvement (41 Wharf Rd): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 182909 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Record 94242 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby electrical / panel (30 Terrace Ave): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B49018 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby general repair (8 Ocean Ave): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 182838 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby general repair (8 Ocean Ave): No longer present in latest agency feed
Record 93727 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby other (30 Terrace Ave): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48890 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby roof replacement (73 Brighton Ave): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48881 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,796,016 in September 2025 to $1,954,560 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94924 (not a parcel appraisal)
41 Wharf Rd · $125,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
66 Altura Ave · 1 unit · $2,900,000 valuation
Records span Dec 18, 2025 to Jan 28, 2026 (2 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
31 Wharf Rd Bldg C D · $2,500,000 valuation
Records span Mar 19, 2025 to Jan 26, 2026 (2 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
97 Brighton Ave (Adu 97a) · 1 unit
Records span Sep 11, 2024 to Oct 7, 2025 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94924 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,016,418 in September 2024 to $1,796,016 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94924 (not a parcel appraisal)
117 Ter Ave · $22,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
46 Crescente Ave · 1 unit · $30,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →In "Applied" for 2.3 yr (since Jul 11, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121). High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $2,750,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
Active in "Issued" for 5.5 yr (first record May 13, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.1 yr. High-impact scale ($1,980,000 declared valuation across 2 permits).
Active in "Issued" for 5 yr (first record Nov 17, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.2 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $950,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
In "Applied" for 11.1 yr (since Oct 22, 2015), exceeding the 55d median and 261d 90th percentile for demolition permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=130).
Active in "Issued" for 20 mo (first record Mar 19, 2025) with no new permit activity recorded in 10 mo. High-impact scale ($2,500,000 declared valuation across 2 permits).
Active in "Issued" for 2.2 yr (first record Sep 11, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 13 mo.
Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 1,181 parcels
Small prior baseline
City baseline: 16.4 / 1k
12 in trailing 24m
Includes 6 ADUs
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owner Recent nearby: 120 Cedar Rd (Oct 7, 2021) | Commercial tenant improvement | 6 in ½ mi | $1,260,969 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Wick Brothers Construction Recent nearby: 1 Brighton Ave (Apr 10, 2025) | Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 4 in ½ mi | $986,500 | 1 vs 2 prior |
| Pacific Ridge Construction Recent nearby: 6 Crescente Ave (Jan 8, 2026) |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94924
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($21,950/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($3,293/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$134,318/yr
Cash needed: $482,900
NOI: -$1,128/yr
P&I: $11,099/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,000/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,760/mo | −$11,538/mo | -28.7% | $18,865/mo | −$11,619/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,000/mo | −$11,193/mo | -27.8% | $17,461/mo | −$11,104/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,180/mo | −$10,995/mo | -27.3% | $17,056/mo | −$10,712/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
No building permits are recorded for this parcel since 2016.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
0.75 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
15 RAFAEL AVE
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 193-133-48. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 193-133-48 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| Addition (adds square footage) |
| 4 in ½ mi |
| $975,000 |
| 4 vs 2 prior |
| Owner Builder Recent nearby: 97 Brighton Ave (Adu 97a) (Oct 7, 2025) | Demolition | 4 in ½ mi | $330,000 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Peacock Roger S Jr Recent nearby: 20 Crescente Ave (Jul 27, 2015) | Remodel / interior alteration | 2 in ½ mi | $58,500 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Arntz Builders Recent nearby: 72 Wharf Rd (Oct 2, 2023) | New commercial / non-residential building | 1 in ½ mi | $1,980,000 | 0 vs 2 prior |
| One Hour Heating And Air Recent nearby: 161 Elm Rd (Sep 1, 2023) | New single-family home | 1 in ½ mi | $950,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Paul S Blow Enterprises Recent nearby: 65 Crescente Ave (May 15, 2014) | New garage / accessory structure | 1 in ½ mi | $500,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Mcphail Jeff Construction And Design Recent nearby: 23 Rafael Ave (Feb 4, 2014) | Addition (adds square footage) | 1 in ½ mi | $325,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Nemec Construction Recent nearby: 22 Crescente Ave (Dec 11, 2020) | Addition (adds square footage) | 1 in ½ mi | $175,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| 316 |
| 103d |
| 160d |
| 249d |
| 440d |
| 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alteration | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.