Nicasio 94946 · Nicasio · APN 121-151-02 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned ARP-5 in Unincorporated Marin and mapped CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $2,227,000 ($1,960,000–$2,494,000).
Public building records show issued construction/renovation work on this parcel (3 total permits, latest Sep 10, 2025).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
all of the lot of the parcel intersects Zone X: minimal flood hazard. Outside mandatory federal SFHA insurance rules, but check local drainage and finished-floor requirements.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 1 proposed or in review.
1 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
10 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
$2,227,000
Benchmark range: $1,960,000 – $2,494,000
Demolition at 6970 Lucas Valley Rd: In "Applied" for 2.6 yr (since Mar 22, 2024), exceeding the 55d median and 261d 90th percentile for demolition permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=130).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (review-time benchmark)
Closest lead: Accessory dwelling unit at 7000 Lucas Valley Rd (390 ft SW, applied). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of ARP-5 as agricultural, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
In "Applied" for 2.6 yr (since Mar 22, 2024), with no new permit record in 2.6 yr. · $15,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 2 yr (since Nov 21, 2024), with no new permit record in 2 yr. · 1 unit
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $2,055,088 in September 2025 to $2,118,994 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,152,177 in September 2024 to $2,055,088 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Remodel / interior alteration permit issued (180046)
Recorded status: Issued
Fire Damage Repair: Including Framing, Ext Siding, Walls, Doors, Windows, Bathrooms Entry Deck, Mech, Elec, Plumbing · Declared valuation: $750,000 · Contractor: Brownco Construction & Development Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Remodel / interior alteration permit application filed (180046)
Current status: Issued
Fire Damage Repair: Including Framing, Ext Siding, Walls, Doors, Windows, Bathrooms Entry Deck, Mech, Elec, Plumbing · Declared valuation: $750,000 · Contractor: Brownco Construction & Development Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
7000 Lucas Valley Rd · 1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,146,567 in September 2023 to $2,152,177 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Electrical / panel permit application filed (B37941)
Current status: Issued
Install temporary power pole for fire repair — Service Upgrade · Declared valuation: $2,500 · Contractor: Greenwood Electric Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Electrical / panel permit issued (B37941)
Recorded status: Issued
Install temporary power pole for fire repair — Service Upgrade · Declared valuation: $2,500 · Contractor: Greenwood Electric Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Demolition permit application filed (92027)
Current status: Applied
Demo To Clean Up After Fire; Temp Power Pole · Declared valuation: $15,000
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,246,416 in September 2022 to $2,146,567 in September 2023.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $2,090,467 in September 2021 to $2,246,416 in September 2022.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94946 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,618,926 in September 2020 to $2,090,467 in September 2021.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94946 (not a parcel appraisal)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →In "Applied" for 2.6 yr (since Mar 22, 2024), exceeding the 55d median and 261d 90th percentile for demolition permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=130).
Pending in review for 2.6 yr (17.5× the 55d median) — slower than 90% of demolition permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 55d, 90th pct 261d, n=130).
In "Applied" for 2 yr (since Nov 21, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
Issued after 7 mo (2.4× the 83d median) — above the 75th percentile for remodel / interior alteration permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 83d, 75th pct 148d, n=1,054).
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brownco Construction And Development | Remodel / interior alteration | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $750,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Greenwood Electric | Electrical / panel | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $2,500 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Owner Builder Recent nearby: 6725 Lucas Valley Rd (Dec 11, 2025) | New garage / accessory structure | 3 in ½ mi |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Demolition |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94946
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($22,250/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($3,338/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$136,483/yr
Cash needed: $489,500
NOI: -$1,473/yr
P&I: $11,251/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,000/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,760/mo | −$11,718/mo | -28.7% | $19,117/mo | −$11,801/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,000/mo | −$11,374/mo | -27.9% | $17,695/mo | −$11,286/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,180/mo | −$11,176/mo | -27.4% | $17,284/mo | −$10,895/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
AppliedMar 22, 2024 – Mar 22, 2024
We group related permits and State housing reports into projects. That grouping is our inference, not an official record.
Fire Damage Repair: Including Framing, Ext Siding, Walls, Doors, Windows, Bathrooms Entry Deck, Mech, Elec, Plumbing
Install temporary power pole for fire repair — Service Upgrade
Demo To Clean Up After Fire; Temp Power Pole
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
3.95 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
6970 LUCAS VALLEY RD
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 121-151-02. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 121-151-02 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| $367,725 |
| 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Conner Consulting And Contracting Recent nearby: 6847 Lucas Valley Rd (Sep 15, 2023) | New garage / accessory structure | 1 in ½ mi | $300,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Chris Solberg Construction Recent nearby: 7100 Lucas Valley Rd (Jul 21, 2015) | New garage / accessory structure | 1 in ½ mi | $220,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| 130 |
| 11d |
| 55d |
| 106d |
| 261d |
| 80d(vs 56d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) | 316 | 103d | 160d | 249d | 440d | 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alterationOn this parcel | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Electrical / panelOn this parcel | 3,019 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 2d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.