Novato 94945 · Black Point · APN 157-012-20 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned ARP-2 in Unincorporated Marin and mapped FEMA AE flood / CAL FIRE moderate fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $1,262,000 ($1,111,000–$1,413,000).
Public building records show issued construction/renovation work on this parcel (2 total permits, latest Nov 21, 2025).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
Zone AE: 1% annual chance flood (Special Flood Hazard Area) overlaps this parcel. Expect mandatory flood insurance for federally backed loans and floodplain elevation/mitigation rules for new units or SB 9 applications.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
61 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026
$1,262,000
Benchmark range: $1,111,000 – $1,413,000
Closest lead: New home at 5 Bay Canyon Rd (0.34 mi SE, applied). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
Sale triggers reassessment to 1.00% base + ~0.15% voter debt (~$1,247/mo). Confirm exact Mello-Roos / CFD special assessments on the county tax bill.
Source: CA Const. Art. XIIIA (Prop 13) · County Tax Collector
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
No ADU or new-home permits recorded within ¼ mile in this window.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 14, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of ARP-2 as agricultural, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
Permit issued and active for 8.9 yr (first record Dec 14, 2017), with no completion or new permit record in 8.5 yr. · 1 unit · $450,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 8.9 yr (first record Dec 14, 2017), with no completion or new permit record in 8.5 yr. · 1 unit · $250,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 8.2 yr (first record Aug 23, 2018), with no completion or new permit record in 8.1 yr. · 1 unit · $35,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 2.4 yr (since Jul 2, 2024), with no new permit record in 2.4 yr. · 1 unit
In "Applied" for 2.3 yr (since Jul 30, 2024), with no new permit record in 2.1 yr. · 1 unit · $50,000 declared valuation
Nearby plumbing / water heater / sewer (155 Crest Rd): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B49058 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby roof replacement (146 Crest Rd): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48995 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby plumbing / water heater / sewer (155 Crest Rd): First appeared in published agency feed
Record B48949 · Detected between snapshots
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,053,344 in September 2025 to $1,063,156 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
Solar / battery storage permit application filed (B44883)
Current status: Issued
Install new 8.6kW solar PV system with a new energy storage system, and a main panel upgrade. · Declared valuation: $43,622 · Contractor: Northern Pacific Power Systems Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Solar / battery storage permit issued (B44883)
Recorded status: Issued
Install new 8.6kW solar PV system with a new energy storage system, and a main panel upgrade. · Declared valuation: $43,622 · Contractor: Northern Pacific Power Systems Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,073,876 in September 2024 to $1,053,344 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
5 Bay Canyon Rd · 1 unit · $50,000 valuation
Records span Jul 30, 2024 to Oct 4, 2024 (2 permits).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,040,503 in September 2023 to $1,073,876 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
8 Glen Ln · 1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
HVAC / heat pump permit application filed (B36742)
Current status: Issued
Replace failed furnace with new furnace — Replace Mechanical Appliance · Declared valuation: $5,400 · Contractor: Ernest Ongaro & Sons Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
HVAC / heat pump permit issued (B36742)
Recorded status: Issued
Replace failed furnace with new furnace — Replace Mechanical Appliance · Declared valuation: $5,400 · Contractor: Ernest Ongaro & Sons Inc
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,070,658 in September 2022 to $1,040,503 in September 2023.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $988,993 in September 2021 to $1,070,658 in September 2022.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
59 Bridge Rd · 1 unit · $230,000 valuation
Records span Mar 3, 2021 to Feb 9, 2022 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →In "Applied" for 2.3 yr (since Jul 30, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
In "Applied" for 2.4 yr (since Jul 2, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
Active in "Issued" for 8.2 yr (first record Aug 23, 2018) with no new permit activity recorded in 8.1 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 8.9 yr (first record Dec 14, 2017) with no new permit activity recorded in 8.5 yr.
Active in "Issued" for 8.9 yr (first record Dec 14, 2017) with no new permit activity recorded in 8.5 yr.
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Pacific Power | Solar / battery storage | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $43,622 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Ernest Ongaro And Sons | HVAC / heat pump | 1 on parcel1 in ½ mi | $5,400 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Tj Built Construction Recent nearby: 33 Green Point Ln (Oct 18, 2018) | Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 4 in ½ mi | $835,000 |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family home | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 210d(vs 276d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
| Addition (adds square footage) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94945
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($12,600/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($1,890/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$66,831/yr
Cash needed: $277,200
NOI: $9,624/yr
P&I: $6,371/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,000/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,760/mo | −$5,914/mo | -25.6% | $11,015/mo | −$5,921/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,000/mo | −$5,569/mo | -24.1% | $10,195/mo | −$5,406/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,180/mo | −$5,371/mo | -23.3% | $9,959/mo | −$5,014/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
Install new 8.6kW solar PV system with a new energy storage system, and a main panel upgrade.
Replace failed furnace with new furnace — Replace Mechanical Appliance
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026
0.21 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
124 HARBOR DR
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 14, 2026
Search by parcel number 157-012-20. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 157-012-20 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| 0 vs 2 prior |
| Owner Builder Recent nearby: 81 Manzanita Ave (Feb 4, 2025) | Remodel / interior alteration | 4 in ½ mi | $325,375 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Owner Recent nearby: 59 Bridge Rd (Feb 9, 2022) | Remodel / interior alteration | 3 in ½ mi | $420,000 | 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Rasmussen Dv And Son Recent nearby: 180 Crest Rd (Jan 11, 2017) | Remodel / interior alteration | 2 in ½ mi | $105,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Cottonwood Homes Recent nearby: 35 Havenwood Dr (Jan 4, 2021) | New garage / accessory structure | 1 in ½ mi | $430,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Hendrickson Pools Recent nearby: 25 Woodview Ln (Nov 19, 2015) | Pool / spa | 1 in ½ mi | $200,000 | 3 vs 4 prior |
| Grant Ian Hetherington Recent nearby: 6 Green Point Ln (Apr 7, 2022) | Remodel / interior alteration | 1 in ½ mi | $195,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| 316 |
| 103d |
| 160d |
| 249d |
| 440d |
| 159d(vs 166d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alteration | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Solar / battery storageOn this parcel | 2,977 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 2d | 0d |
| HVAC / heat pumpOn this parcel | 2,946 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d | 0d |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.