Novato 94945 · Black Point · APN 157-051-14 · Unincorporated Marin
Zoned Undesignated in Unincorporated Marin and mapped FEMA AE flood / CAL FIRE high fire hazard severity zone (state responsibility area) due diligence; benchmark value $1,344,000 ($1,183,000–$1,505,000).
On-parcel permit history is indexed through Oct 2, 2025, letting you verify roof, HVAC, electrical, or structural work against seller disclosures.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (parcel APN)
Zone AE: 1% annual chance flood (Special Flood Hazard Area) overlaps this parcel. Expect mandatory flood insurance for federally backed loans and floodplain elevation/mitigation rules for new units or SB 9 applications.
Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (parcel polygon)
Located in a mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone. Expect Chapter 7A ignition-resistant building standards, defensible-space inspections, and stricter property insurance underwriting.
Automated synthesis of indexed municipal, county, state, and federal public records — informational context only, not a formal appraisal, survey, or legal/tax determination.
Since November 2024 within ½ mile: 1 proposed or in review.
1 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
91 permits within ½ mile since November 2024
$1,344,000
Benchmark range: $1,183,000 – $1,505,000
Source: CAL FIRE FHSZ (map Apr 1, 2024)
New home at 5 Bay Canyon Rd: In "Applied" for 2.3 yr (since Jul 30, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) (review-time benchmark)
Closest lead: New home (0.45 mi SW, entitled). Inspect timeline history before assuming near-term completion.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · HCD APR (½-mile radius)
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with Unincorporated Marin's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) (retrieved Nov 13, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Nov 9, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of Undesignated as other, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
In "Applied" for 2.3 yr (since Jul 30, 2024), with no new permit record in 2.1 yr. · 1 unit · $50,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 8.9 yr (first record Dec 14, 2017), with no completion or new permit record in 8.5 yr. · 1 unit · $450,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 8.9 yr (first record Dec 14, 2017), with no completion or new permit record in 8.5 yr. · 1 unit · $250,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 8.2 yr (first record Aug 23, 2018), with no completion or new permit record in 8.1 yr. · 1 unit · $35,000 declared valuation
Permit issued and active for 3.5 yr (first record May 30, 2023), with no completion or new permit record in 3.5 yr. · 1 unit · $44,888 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 2.8 yr (since Feb 7, 2024), with no new permit record in 2.8 yr. · 1 unit · $35,000 declared valuation
Latest published Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) update
Changed from $1,053,344 in September 2025 to $1,063,156 in September 2026.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
Electrical / panel permit application filed (93596)
Current status: Applied
Temporary Power Pole, Private Meter With Breaker
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,073,876 in September 2024 to $1,053,344 in September 2025.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
General repair permit application filed (92848)
Current status: Applied
Retaining Wall
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
New single-family home permit application filed (92652)
Current status: Applied
Install Prefabricated S F D On Vacant Lot · Declared valuation: $50,000
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,040,503 in September 2023 to $1,073,876 in September 2024.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
New single-family home permit application filed (92459)
Current status: Applied
Prefabricated S F D · Declared valuation: $50,000
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel
8 Glen Ln · 1 unit
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
363 Grandview Ave · 1 unit · $75,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
315 Laurel Ave · 1 unit · $35,000 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $1,070,658 in September 2022 to $1,040,503 in September 2023.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
302 Grandview Ave · 1 unit · $44,888 valuation
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Annual ZIP 94945 home-value index checkpoint
Changed from $988,993 in September 2021 to $1,070,658 in September 2022.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) · Data provided by Zillow · Geography: ZIP 94945 (not a parcel appraisal)
290 Grandview Ave · 1 unit · $200,000 valuation
Records span May 4, 2022 to Sep 9, 2022 (1 permit).
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full Unincorporated Marin development graph →In "Applied" for 2.3 yr (since Jul 30, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
Pending in review for 13 mo — slower than 90% of electrical / panel permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 0d, 90th pct 2d, n=3,019).
Pending in review for 23 mo (8.4× the 83d median) — slower than 90% of general repair permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 83d, 90th pct 328d, n=693).
Pending in review for 2.1 yr (3.0× the 253d median) — slower than 90% of new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 253d, 90th pct 686d, n=121).
Pending in review for 2.3 yr (3.3× the 253d median) — slower than 90% of new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (median 253d, 90th pct 686d, n=121).
In "Entitled" for 2 yr (since Nov 13, 2024), exceeding the 253d median and 686d 90th percentile for new single-family home permits in Unincorporated Marin (n=121).
| Builder / contractor | Primary specialty | Here / ½ mi | ½ mi valuation | Citywide 24m trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owner Builder Recent nearby: 315 Laurel Ave (Apr 4, 2025) | Remodel / interior alteration | 7 in ½ mi | $781,375 | 226 vs 240 prior−6% |
| Tj Built Construction Recent nearby: 33 Green Point Ln (Oct 18, 2018) | Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 4 in ½ mi | $835,000 | 0 vs 2 prior |
| Owner Recent nearby: 59 Bridge Rd (Feb 9, 2022) |
| Permit category | Sample (n) | 25th pct | Median (50th) | 75th pct | 90th pct | Recent 24m median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New single-family homeOn this parcel | 121 | 166d | 253d | 456d | 686d | 211d(vs 273d prior) |
| New multifamily / condos / mixed-use | 21 | 272d | 292d | 293d | 313d | 293d(vs 197d prior) |
| Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion) | 298 | 120d | 204d | 331d | 549d | 214d(vs 181d prior) |
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent · ZIP 94945
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($13,450/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($2,018/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Mapped hazard zone insurance context on this parcel:
Model adding a backyard ADU or garage conversion under California's Prop 13 blended new-construction assessment (existing house & land tax base stays intact; only ADU build cost is assessed) and SB 13 impact-fee rules.
−$72,966/yr
Cash needed: $295,900
NOI: $8,647/yr
P&I: $6,801/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,000/mo gross rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $2,760/mo | −$6,425/mo | -26.1% | $11,729/mo | −$6,439/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,000/mo | −$6,081/mo | -24.7% | $10,856/mo | −$5,924/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.5%/yr rent growth (capped by AB 1482 ceiling of 8.6%/yr) | $3,180/mo | −$5,883/mo | -23.9% | $10,604/mo | −$5,532/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties.
Applied1 unitsJul 30, 2024 – Oct 4, 2024
We group related permits and State housing reports into projects. That grouping is our inference, not an official record.
Temporary Power Pole, Private Meter With Breaker
Retaining Wall
Install Prefabricated S F D On Vacant Lot
Prefabricated S F D
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026 · Received and issued dates come from the County of Marin. The county publishes no final or expired status, so an issued permit stays 'Issued' after the work is done.
No housing activity reported to the State for this parcel (2018–2025 reports).
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Nov 9, 2026 · From Unincorporated Marin's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Zoning (11 cities and unincorporated Marin) · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
1.84 acres
Assessor's classification for assessment purposes. This is not zoning.
5 BAY CANYON RD
Source: County of Marin GIS (MarinMap), Parcels · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Nov 13, 2026
Search by parcel number 157-051-14. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by parcel number 157-051-14 (Marin County Tax Collector)
Permits issued in unincorporated Marin in the past 48 months. Each city keeps its own records.
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.
| New single-family home |
| 4 in ½ mi |
| $520,000 |
| 25 vs 15 prior+67% |
| Cottonwood Homes Recent nearby: 35 Havenwood Dr (Jan 4, 2021) | New garage / accessory structure | 1 in ½ mi | $430,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Hendrickson Pools Recent nearby: 25 Woodview Ln (Nov 19, 2015) | Pool / spa | 1 in ½ mi | $200,000 | 3 vs 4 prior |
| Grant Ian Hetherington Recent nearby: 6 Green Point Ln (Apr 7, 2022) | Remodel / interior alteration | 1 in ½ mi | $195,000 | 0 vs 0 prior |
| Addition (adds square footage) | 316 | 103d | 160d | 249d | 440d | 157d(vs 167d prior) |
| Remodel / interior alteration | 1,054 | 36d | 83d | 148d | 266d | 112d(vs 77d prior) |
| Commercial tenant improvement | 81 | 99d | 148d | 233d | 443d | 152d(vs 150d prior) |
| Electrical / panelOn this parcel | 3,019 | 0d | 0d | 0d | 2d | 0d |
| General repairOn this parcel | 693 | 38d | 83d | 181d | 328d | 97d(vs 66d prior) |
Source: County of Marin Community Development Agency, Building Permits (unincorporated Marin) · Computed from issued permits with recorded application and issuance dates over the trailing 60 months. Categories with fewer than 20 permits are excluded.