952 Carolina St

San Francisco · Potrero Hill · Block/lot 4160/009 · San Francisco

Property brief (PDF)Timeline ↓Calculator ↓Official records ↓

What's changing nearby

Since October 2024 within ½ mile: 166 homes completed, 40 permitted, 52 proposed or in review (169 of them deed-restricted affordable); 7 demolitions.

44 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.

933 permits within ½ mile since October 2024

New construction3 · 5 units
Adds housing (ADU)18 · 22 units
Demolition28
Additions & renovations284
Building systems418
Repairs53
Other129

The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.

Explore projects on the map →Explore sales & prices →

Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Oct 31, 2026

Estimated price, listing status & sales records

Benchmark valuation & transaction history

Estimated PriceArea benchmark

$1,717,000

Benchmark range: $1,459,000 – $1,975,000

Listing StatusOff Market

Not currently listed for sale

Compare nearby sales & prices on map →

Last Sold & Tax Roll

No deed price in open GIS feed

Verify on Property Information Map

How this estimated price is calculated (Area ZHVI + ACS + Permit Benchmark)

Model monthly ownership cost ↓

1. Area home value baseline: Potrero Hill Census ACS 5-year median home value ($1,514,589); $1,514,589
2. Parcel & lot adjustment (1.00×): Standard residential parcel (1.00× area baseline); +$0
3. Documented permitted improvements: +$202,400 from documented permits (1 addition); +$202,400

Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.

What could be built here

A screen, not a determination

ADU or junior ADU

Likely eligible

Zoned RH-2 (two-family residential): state law allows ADUs where homes are allowed.

What we couldn't check (4)

Setbacks, height and size limits in the local ADU ordinance
Utility and sewer capacity, fire access
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

SB 9: two homes on the lot

Unlikely

Zoned RH-2 (two-family residential), not a single-family residential zone.

What we couldn't check (6)

Whether a tenant lived there in the last 3 years, or the building was withdrawn from rent under the Ellis Act
Rent-controlled or deed-restricted affordable housing on the lot
Wetlands, habitat, farmland, hazardous waste sites and conservation easements
Local SB 9 standards (size, setbacks, parking)
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

SB 9: split into two lots

Unlikely

Zoned RH-2 (two-family residential), not a single-family residential zone.

What we couldn't check (6)

Owner-occupancy: the applicant must sign an affidavit to live in one of the homes for 3 years
Whether the lot was created by an earlier SB 9 split, or the owner split an adjacent lot
Whether a tenant lived there in the last 3 years, or the building was withdrawn from rent under the Ellis Act
Wetlands, habitat, farmland, hazardous waste sites and conservation easements
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

Mapped hazards on this lot

Fire hazard severity zone: Not in a State-mapped zone
FEMA flood zone: Zone X: minimal flood hazardFIRM panel 0602980119A, effective March 23, 2021. Official flood map
Earthquake fault zone: Not in an Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zone

Built nearby: within ¼ mile since October 2023

New single-family home1
Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion)4

See them on the map →

Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.

We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with San Francisco's planning department before relying on it.

Sources: San Francisco Planning, Zoning Map – Zoning Districts (retrieved Oct 31, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of RH-2 as two-family residential, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026

Property & area intelligence timeline

94 events · 27 slow/stalled projects

Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.

Slow-moving or stalled projects (27)

Active projects spending 12+ months pre-issuance, 24+ months under construction, or 6+ months without new records

StalledNew homeEntitled
On this parcel
In "Entitled" for 5.1 yr (since Sep 23, 2021), with no new permit record in 5.1 yr. · 1 unit
StalledNew homeEntitled
On this parcel
In "Entitled" for 18 mo (since Apr 24, 2025), with no new permit record in 18 mo. · 1 unit
StalledNew duplex at 863 Carolina StIssued
450 ft N
Permit issued and active for 9.7 yr (first record Feb 2, 2017), with no completion or new permit record in 3 yr. · 2 units · $842,000 declared valuation
StalledAccessory dwelling unit at 697 Rhode Island StApplied
0.33 mi N
In "Applied" for 4.9 yr (since Dec 14, 2021), with no new permit record in 2.5 yr. · 1 unit · $295,000 declared valuation
StalledNew home at 1212a 19th StIssued
0.45 mi NE
Permit issued and active for 4 yr (first record Nov 17, 2022), with no completion or new permit record in 2.3 yr. · 1 unit · $280 declared valuation
StalledAccessory dwelling unit at 1364 San Bruno AveApplied
0.38 mi SW
In "Applied" for 3.7 yr (since Feb 1, 2023), with no new permit record in 2.2 yr. · 1 unit · $5,000 declared valuation

202615 events

Oct 29, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.5 mi NW
Nearby solar / battery storage (519 Vermont St): Status changed from issued to complete
Record S20260608637 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 29, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.36 mi SW
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (1330 San Bruno Av): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 202610290088 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 29, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.36 mi SW
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (1330 San Bruno Av): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 202610290090 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 29, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.36 mi SW
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (1330 San Bruno Av): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 202610290092 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 29, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.36 mi SW
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (1334 San Bruno Av): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 202610290094 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 29, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.21 mi NE
Nearby windows / doors / siding (573 Arkansas St): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 202610290110 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.48 mi N
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (1705 Mariposa St): Status changed from suspend to cancelled
Record 201908300360 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.43 mi W
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (853 Hampshire St): Status changed from suspend to cancelled
Record 202011068361 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.45 mi W
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (2693 22nd St): Status changed from reinstated to cancelled
Record 201603152101 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.4 mi SW
Nearby general repair (1403 San Bruno Av): Status changed from suspend to cancelled
Record 202204283245 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.47 mi W
Nearby plan revision / deferred submittal (2700 22nd St): Status changed from issued to complete
Record 202510288301 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.33 mi S
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (2207a 25th St): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 202610279968 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.29 mi SW
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (1266 Vermont St): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 202610280051 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 26, 2026 – Oct 27, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.21 mi N
Nearby plan revision / deferred submittal (New home at 613 Wisconsin St): Description text was updated
Record 202606042603 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 23, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.29 mi N
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (717 De Haro St): Status changed from issued to expired
Record 202312212959 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile

Showing 15 of 94 timeline events

Recorded sales & deed transfers: California county recorders do not publish open bulk deed-transfer feeds without owner-PII restrictions, so individual sale deeds are not redistributed here. For official assessment roll and recorded transfer history in San Francisco, inspect Property Information Map ↗.

Development graph & closer investigation

6 investigation leads

Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.

Explore full San Francisco development graph →

Developments deserving closer investigation (6)

On this parcel & within ½ mile

New homeEntitledNo new record in 18 mo
On this parcel
Active in "Entitled" for 18 mo (first record Apr 24, 2025) with no new permit activity recorded in 18 mo.
New homeEntitledNo new record in 5.1 yr
On this parcel
Active in "Entitled" for 5.1 yr (first record Sep 23, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 5.1 yr.
New home at 613 Wisconsin StIssuedNo new record in 10 mo$1,420,000Recent snapshot change
0.21 mi N
Active in "Issued" for 18 mo (first record May 13, 2025) with no new permit activity recorded in 10 mo. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $1,420,000 declared valuation across 3 permits). work_desc changed to "revisions to approved permit #202503132195 issued 12/31/2025. minor interior plan changes to basement, 1st, 2nd, & 3rd floors resulting in structural modifications at each level. new bathroom in basement & wet bar on 3/f. 3 windows removed from scope at kitchen, bath 1 & 3/f." in snapshot Oct 27, 2026.
25 new homesEntitledNo new record in 20 mo25 units
0.39 mi SE
Active in "Entitled" for 20 mo (first record Mar 12, 2025) with no new permit activity recorded in 20 mo. High-impact scale (25 housing units, 6 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
25 new homes at 1055 Texas StIssuedNo new record in 19 mo25 units
0.4 mi SE
Active in "Issued" for 5.7 yr (first record Mar 3, 2021) with no new permit activity recorded in 19 mo. High-impact scale (25 housing units, 6 deed-restricted affordable, $5,000,000 declared valuation across 2 permits).
New duplex at 863 Carolina StIssuedNo new record in 3 yr$842,000
450 ft N
Active in "Issued" for 9.7 yr (first record Feb 2, 2017) with no new permit activity recorded in 3 yr. High-impact scale (2 housing units, $842,000 declared valuation across 7 permits).

Neighborhood renovation & housing momentum: Potrero Hill

Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 2,930 parcels

Rank #7 of 37 neighborhoods in acceleration

Last 12m vs prior 12m: 167 vs 129 permits
24m rate per 1,000 parcels: 101.0
5-year substantial permits: 742
Housing additions (24m): 18 units

Ownership & rental scenario calculator

Prop 13 tax estimate & area benchmarks

Area rent & home-value benchmarks (kept separate from your assumptions)

Click any benchmark to pre-fill the calculator

HUD Metro Fair Market Rent · San Francisco, CA HUD Metro FMR Area

HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rent

Census ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):

Potrero Hill$3,500+

Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)

ZIP & neighborhood medians

ACS Median Home Value · Potrero HillCensus ACS 2020–2024 owner-occupied self-reported median

$1,515,000±$119,000

1. Purchase, financing & Prop 13 tax reassessment

Purchase price ($)Down payment (%)$343,000Interest rate (%)Loan termClosing costs (%)$34,300

Prop 13 post-purchase property tax estimate

$1,724/mo ($20,687/yr · 1.21%)

Under California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($17,150/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($3,087/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).

Voter bond rate (%)$3,087/yrDirect levies / Mello-Roos ($/yr)Check Property Information Map ↗

2. Your rent & operating assumptions

Monthly gross rent ($)Your assumptionVacancy allowance (%)−$180/moManagement (%)$274/moMaintenance (%)$180/moCapEx reserve (%)$180/moInsurance ($/mo)$1,980/yrHOA dues ($/mo)Owner utilities ($/mo)

Insurance & hazard context:

This lot is outside mapped CAL FIRE Fire Hazard Severity Zones and FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas. California insurance costs still vary widely by roof age, electrical panel, and carrier underwriting; obtain a property-specific quote rather than relying on rules of thumb.

3. Scenario results (based on your assumptions)

Net monthly cash flow: −$7,774
Cash-on-cash return: -24.7%
Cap rate (Year 1 NOI): 0.63%
DSCR (NOI / debt): 0.10x
Break-even gross rent: $13,645/mo
Break-even vacancy: 0% (negative at full occ.)

Monthly cash-flow breakdown (Effective gross $3,420 − Operating $2,523 − Debt $8,672)

Gross scheduled rent$3,600

Vacancy allowance (5%)−$180

Effective gross income$3,420

Prop 13 property tax (1.21%)−$1,724

Property insurance−$165

Management (8%), maintenance (5%) & CapEx (5%)−$634

Net Operating Income (NOI)+$897

Mortgage principal & interest (1,372,000 loan)−$8,672

Net monthly cash flow−$7,774

4. Sensitivity & rent-stabilization ceiling (San Francisco)

Scenario	Assumptions	Year 1 Rent	Year 1 Cash Flow	Cash-on-Cash	Break-Even Rent	Year 5 Cash Flow
Conservative	−8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth	$3,312/mo	−$8,188/mo	-26.0%	$14,742/mo	−$8,199/mo
Base (your inputs)	Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth	$3,600/mo	−$7,774/mo	-24.7%	$13,645/mo	−$7,581/mo
Optimistic (cap-limited)	+6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.2%/yr rent growth (capped by local ordinance ceiling of 4.2%/yr)	$3,816/mo	−$7,537/mo	-24.0%	$13,328/mo	−$7,152/mo

Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):

California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties. In San Francisco: San Francisco Rent Ordinance (Admin. Code Ch. 37) — annual allowable increase is 60% of Bay Area CPI (capped at 7%) for covered pre-June 1979 buildings. Official program rules ↗

Common statutory exemption signals under AB 1482

Housing issued a certificate of occupancy within the last 15 years (rolling exemption under AB 1482).
Separately alienable single-family homes or condominiums not owned by a corporation, REIT, or LLC with a corporate member (when required statutory notice is in the lease).
Owner-occupied duplexes where the owner occupied one unit from the start of the tenancy.

Development projects on this parcel

New home
Entitled1 unitsApr 24, 2025 – Apr 24, 2025
New home
Entitled1 unitsSep 23, 2021 – Sep 23, 2021
New duplex at 952 Carolina St
Expired / withdrawn2 unitsOct 19, 2017 – Oct 19, 2017

We group related permits and State housing reports into projects. That grouping is our inference, not an official record.

Permit history on this parcel

4 records

Addition (adds square footage)202204142293
partial demolition of existing structure, relocate earthquake shack at front of property, erect new 3-story 2 unit addition over basement
partial demolition of existing structure, relocate earthquake shack at front of property, erect new 3-story 2 unit addition over basement
Applied
Apr 14, 2022
Issued
Jul 17, 2024
Recorded status
issued as of Jul 17, 2024
Declared valuation
$1,502,798
Windows / doors / siding201904198479
per pln request - remove a few sq ft of (e) siding @ the front of house (25sf) in order to see whats behind the ext siding. after review reinstall siding to match - paint
per pln request - remove a few sq ft of (e) siding @ the front of house (25sf) in order to see whats behind the ext siding. after review reinstall siding to match - paint
Applied
Apr 19, 2019
Issued
Apr 25, 2019
Recorded status
complete as of May 13, 2019
Declared valuation
$250
New duplex / half-plex201710191725
erect (n) 2-unit, 4-story residence
erect (n) 2-unit, 4-story residence
Applied
Oct 19, 2017
Issued
Not issued
Recorded status
withdrawn as of Mar 24, 2022
Declared valuation
$600,000
Demolition201710191722
demolish 1-story single family residence
demolish 1-story single family residence
Applied
Oct 19, 2017
Issued
Not issued
Recorded status
withdrawn as of Mar 17, 2022
Declared valuation
$20,000

Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Oct 31, 2026 · Filed, issued, and status dates come from the Department of Building Inspection, which dates each status change.

Housing activity reported to the State

Report year	Project / record	Type	Entitled	Permitted	Completed	Deed-restricted
2025	952 CAROLINA ST(2024-008539PRJ)	2 to 4 · Renter	1 (Apr 24, 2025)	—	—	—
2021	952 CAROLINA ST(2017-015648PRJ)	2 to 4 · Owner	1 (Sep 23, 2021)	—	—	—

Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Oct 26, 2026 · From San Francisco's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.

Zoning & planning

Zoning: RH-2: RESIDENTIAL- HOUSE, TWO FAMILY code

Source: San Francisco Planning, Zoning Map – Zoning Districts · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Oct 31, 2026

Parcel facts

Lot size: —
Parcel type: Lot
Addresses on parcel: 1

Source: San Francisco Planning / DataSF, Parcels – Active and Retired · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Oct 31, 2026

Official records

Property Information Map
Zoning, permits, planning cases, and assessor data for this lot (SF Planning)
Assessor-Recorder
Look up block/lot 4160/009. Assessed value is not market value.
Property tax payment
Search by block/lot 4160/009 (SF Treasurer & Tax Collector)
DBI permit tracking
Search building permits, complaints, and inspections by address or block/lot
FEMA Flood Map Service Center
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.

This site does not show owner names.

Scenario

Assumptions

Year 1 Rent

Year 1 Cash Flow

Cash-on-Cash

Break-Even Rent

Year 5 Cash Flow

Conservative

−8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth

$3,312/mo

−$8,188/mo

-26.0%

$14,742/mo

−$8,199/mo

Base (your inputs)

Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth

$3,600/mo

−$7,774/mo

-24.7%

$13,645/mo

−$7,581/mo

Optimistic (cap-limited)

+6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.2%/yr rent growth (capped by local ordinance ceiling of 4.2%/yr)

$3,816/mo

−$7,537/mo

-24.0%

$13,328/mo

−$7,152/mo

Report year

Project / record

Type

Entitled

Permitted

Completed

Deed-restricted

2025

952 CAROLINA ST(2024-008539PRJ)

2 to 4 · Renter

1 (Apr 24, 2025)

—

2021

952 CAROLINA ST(2017-015648PRJ)

2 to 4 · Owner

1 (Sep 23, 2021)

—