4199 Mission St

San Francisco · Excelsior · Block/lot 5869/014 · San Francisco

Property brief (PDF)Timeline ↓Calculator ↓Official records ↓

What's changing nearby

Since October 2024 within ½ mile: 8 homes completed, 11 permitted, 13 proposed or in review.

25 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.

787 permits within ½ mile since October 2024

Adds housing (ADU)19 · 26 units
Additions & renovations218
Building systems437
Repairs38
Other75

The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.

Explore projects on the map →Explore sales & prices →

Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Oct 29, 2026

Estimated price, listing status & sales records

Benchmark valuation & transaction history

Estimated PriceArea benchmark

$1,182,000

Benchmark range: $1,005,000 – $1,359,000

Listing StatusOff Market

Not currently listed for sale

Compare nearby sales & prices on map →

Last Sold & Tax Roll

No deed price in open GIS feed

Verify on Property Information Map

How this estimated price is calculated (Area ZHVI + ACS + Permit Benchmark)

Model monthly ownership cost ↓

1. Area home value baseline: Excelsior Census ACS 5-year median home value ($1,181,754); $1,181,754
2. Parcel & lot adjustment (1.00×): Standard residential parcel (1.00× area baseline); +$0
3. Documented permitted improvements: No recent value-adding ADU, addition, or remodel permits recorded on this parcel; +$0

Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.

What could be built here

A screen, not a determination

ADU or junior ADU

Likely eligible

Zoned NCD-EXCELSIOR (mixed use): state law allows ADUs where homes are allowed.
On a multifamily lot the state allowance is different: ADUs in non-living space of the building, plus up to eight detached ADUs.

What we couldn't check (4)

Setbacks, height and size limits in the local ADU ordinance
Utility and sewer capacity, fire access
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

SB 9: two homes on the lot

Unlikely

Zoned NCD-EXCELSIOR (mixed use), not a single-family residential zone.

What we couldn't check (6)

Whether a tenant lived there in the last 3 years, or the building was withdrawn from rent under the Ellis Act
Rent-controlled or deed-restricted affordable housing on the lot
Wetlands, habitat, farmland, hazardous waste sites and conservation easements
Local SB 9 standards (size, setbacks, parking)
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

SB 9: split into two lots

Unlikely

Zoned NCD-EXCELSIOR (mixed use), not a single-family residential zone.

What we couldn't check (6)

Owner-occupancy: the applicant must sign an affidavit to live in one of the homes for 3 years
Whether the lot was created by an earlier SB 9 split, or the owner split an adjacent lot
Whether a tenant lived there in the last 3 years, or the building was withdrawn from rent under the Ellis Act
Wetlands, habitat, farmland, hazardous waste sites and conservation easements
Historic district or landmark status: we have no historic layer for this area yet.
Locally adopted fire hazard maps, which can be broader than the State's.

Mapped hazards on this lot

Fire hazard severity zone: Not in a State-mapped zone
FEMA flood zone: Zone X: minimal flood hazardFIRM panel 0602980231A, effective March 23, 2021. Official flood map
Earthquake fault zone: Not in an Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zone

Built nearby: within ¼ mile since October 2023

Accessory dwelling unit (new or conversion)5

See them on the map →

Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.

We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with San Francisco's planning department before relying on it.

Sources: San Francisco Planning, Zoning Map – Zoning Districts (retrieved Oct 29, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of NCD-EXCELSIOR as mixed use, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026

Property & area intelligence timeline

79 events · 33 slow/stalled projects

Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.

Slow-moving or stalled projects (33)

Active projects spending 12+ months pre-issuance, 24+ months under construction, or 6+ months without new records

Stalled39 new homesEntitled
On this parcel
In "Entitled" for 3.3 yr (since Jul 13, 2023), with no new permit record in 3.3 yr. · 39 units
StalledAccessory dwelling unit at 123 Gambier StApplied
0.45 mi E
In "Applied" for 5.2 yr (since Aug 5, 2021), with no new permit record in 5.2 yr. · 1 unit · $3,300 declared valuation
StalledDemolition at 4570 Mission StApplied
0.46 mi SW
In "Applied" for 4.8 yr (since Dec 27, 2021), with no new permit record in 4.8 yr. · $50,000 declared valuation
StalledAccessory dwelling unit at 27 Brompton AveIssued
0.39 mi NW
Permit issued and active for 7.2 yr (first record Aug 21, 2019), with no completion or new permit record in 4.8 yr. · 1 unit · $450,000 declared valuation
StalledAccessory dwelling unit at 4232a Mission StIssued
390 ft SW
Permit issued and active for 5.9 yr (first record Dec 9, 2020), with no completion or new permit record in 4.6 yr. · 1 unit · $200,000 declared valuation
StalledAccessory dwelling unit at 32 Monterey BlApplied
0.37 mi NW
In "Applied" for 4.1 yr (since Sep 16, 2022), with no new permit record in 4.1 yr. · 1 unit · $30,000 declared valuation

202615 events

Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.37 mi SE
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (134 Athens St): Status changed from issued to complete
Record 202504285375 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.42 mi SE
Nearby windows / doors / siding (801 Avalon Av): Status changed from suspend to cancelled
Record 201810052448 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.37 mi SE
Nearby plan revision / deferred submittal (134 Athens St): Status changed from reinstated to complete
Record 202601204180 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.37 mi SE
Nearby plan revision / deferred submittal (134 Athens St): Status changed from issued to complete
Record 202603208025 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.37 mi SE
Nearby plan revision / deferred submittal (134 Athens St): Status changed from issued to complete
Record 202609228454 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.24 mi N
Nearby plan revision / deferred submittal (Accessory dwelling unit at 240 Bosworth St): Status changed from filed to issued
Record 202610239808 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.24 mi N
Nearby plan revision / deferred submittal (Accessory dwelling unit at 240 Bosworth St): Issued date changed from (blank) to 2026-10-27
Record 202610239808 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.35 mi NE
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (21 College Tr): Declared valuation changed from 0 to 88000
Record 202610269867 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 28, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.18 mi SE
Nearby repair tied to a housing/code case (174 Maynard St): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 202610280014 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 26, 2026 – Oct 27, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.45 mi NW
Nearby plumbing / water heater / sewer (149 Chilton Av): Status changed from issued to complete
Record 202608035992 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 26, 2026 – Oct 27, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.44 mi SE
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (1821 Silliman St): Declared valuation changed from 0 to 19000
Record 202610239846 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 26, 2026 – Oct 27, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.35 mi NE
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (21 College Tr): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 202610269867 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 26, 2026 – Oct 27, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.49 mi NE
Nearby plan revision / deferred submittal (3801 Mission St): No longer present in latest agency feed
Record 202511210209 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 23, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.36 mi SE
Nearby general repair (130 Athens St): Status changed from issued to expired
Record 202309086207 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Oct 23, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026Snapshot windowNearby snapshot change
0.47 mi S
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (370 Edinburgh St): Status changed from issued to complete
Record 202608196856 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile

Showing 15 of 79 timeline events

Recorded sales & deed transfers: California county recorders do not publish open bulk deed-transfer feeds without owner-PII restrictions, so individual sale deeds are not redistributed here. For official assessment roll and recorded transfer history in San Francisco, inspect Property Information Map ↗.

Development graph & closer investigation

6 investigation leads

Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.

Explore full San Francisco development graph →

Developments deserving closer investigation (6)

On this parcel & within ½ mile

39 new homesEntitledNo new record in 3.3 yr39 units
On this parcel
Active in "Entitled" for 3.3 yr (first record Jul 13, 2023) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.3 yr. High-impact scale (39 housing units, 8 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
69 new homesEntitledNo new record in 3.6 yr69 units
0.46 mi SW
Active in "Entitled" for 3.6 yr (first record Mar 23, 2023) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.6 yr. High-impact scale (69 housing units, 17 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
New home at 49 Sussex StIssuedNo new record in 2.9 yr$2,000,000
0.5 mi NW
Active in "Issued" for 10.1 yr (first record Sep 16, 2016) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.9 yr. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $2,000,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
Accessory dwelling unit at 212 Genebern WyIssuedNo new record in 6 mo$961,808
0.27 mi NE
Active in "Issued" for 4 yr (first record Oct 17, 2022) with no new permit activity recorded in 6 mo. High-impact scale (1 housing unit, $961,808 declared valuation across 3 permits).
Accessory dwelling unit at 4232a Mission StIssuedNo new record in 4.6 yr
390 ft SW
Active in "Issued" for 5.9 yr (first record Dec 9, 2020) with no new permit activity recorded in 4.6 yr.
New home at 141v Milton StIssuedNo new record in 2.8 yr
0.18 mi N
Active in "Issued" for 6 yr (first record Oct 14, 2020) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.8 yr.

Neighborhood renovation & housing momentum: Excelsior

Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 8,511 parcels

Rank #28 of 37 neighborhoods in acceleration

Last 12m vs prior 12m: 129 vs 119 permits
24m rate per 1,000 parcels: 29.1
5-year substantial permits: 639
Housing additions (24m): 18 units

Ownership & rental scenario calculator

Prop 13 tax estimate & area benchmarks

Area rent & home-value benchmarks (kept separate from your assumptions)

Click any benchmark to pre-fill the calculator

HUD Metro Fair Market Rent · San Francisco, CA HUD Metro FMR Area

HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rent

Census ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):

Excelsior$2,291±$172

Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)

ZIP & neighborhood medians

ACS Median Home Value · ExcelsiorCensus ACS 2020–2024 owner-occupied self-reported median

$1,182,000±$27,600

1. Purchase, financing & Prop 13 tax reassessment

Purchase price ($)Down payment (%)$236,000Interest rate (%)Loan termClosing costs (%)$23,600

Prop 13 post-purchase property tax estimate

$1,198/mo ($14,374/yr · 1.22%)

Under California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($11,800/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($2,124/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).

Voter bond rate (%)$2,124/yrDirect levies / Mello-Roos ($/yr)Check Property Information Map ↗

2. Your rent & operating assumptions

Monthly gross rent ($)Your assumptionVacancy allowance (%)−$180/moManagement (%)$274/moMaintenance (%)$180/moCapEx reserve (%)$180/moInsurance ($/mo)$1,980/yrHOA dues ($/mo)Owner utilities ($/mo)

Insurance & hazard context:

This lot is outside mapped CAL FIRE Fire Hazard Severity Zones and FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas. California insurance costs still vary widely by roof age, electrical panel, and carrier underwriting; obtain a property-specific quote rather than relying on rules of thumb.

3. Scenario results (based on your assumptions)

Net monthly cash flow: −$4,543
Cash-on-cash return: -21.0%
Cap rate (Year 1 NOI): 1.45%
DSCR (NOI / debt): 0.24x
Break-even gross rent: $9,470/mo
Break-even vacancy: 0% (negative at full occ.)

Monthly cash-flow breakdown (Effective gross $3,420 − Operating $1,996 − Debt $5,967)

Gross scheduled rent$3,600

Vacancy allowance (5%)−$180

Effective gross income$3,420

Prop 13 property tax (1.22%)−$1,198

Property insurance−$165

Management (8%), maintenance (5%) & CapEx (5%)−$634

Net Operating Income (NOI)+$1,424

Mortgage principal & interest (944,000 loan)−$5,967

Net monthly cash flow−$4,543

4. Sensitivity & rent-stabilization ceiling (San Francisco)

Scenario	Assumptions	Year 1 Rent	Year 1 Cash Flow	Cash-on-Cash	Break-Even Rent	Year 5 Cash Flow
Conservative	−8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth	$3,312/mo	−$4,957/mo	-22.9%	$10,231/mo	−$4,924/mo
Base (your inputs)	Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth	$3,600/mo	−$4,543/mo	-21.0%	$9,470/mo	−$4,306/mo
Optimistic (cap-limited)	+6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.2%/yr rent growth (capped by local ordinance ceiling of 4.2%/yr)	$3,816/mo	−$4,306/mo	-19.9%	$9,250/mo	−$3,878/mo

Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):

California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties. In San Francisco: San Francisco Rent Ordinance (Admin. Code Ch. 37) — annual allowable increase is 60% of Bay Area CPI (capped at 7%) for covered pre-June 1979 buildings. Official program rules ↗

Common statutory exemption signals under AB 1482

Housing issued a certificate of occupancy within the last 15 years (rolling exemption under AB 1482).
Separately alienable single-family homes or condominiums not owned by a corporation, REIT, or LLC with a corporate member (when required statutory notice is in the lease).
Owner-occupied duplexes where the owner occupied one unit from the start of the tenancy.

Development projects on this parcel

39 new homes
Entitled39 units8 deed-restrictedJul 13, 2023 – Jul 13, 2023

We group related permits and State housing reports into projects. That grouping is our inference, not an official record.

Permit history on this parcel

0 records

No building permits are recorded for this parcel since 2016.

Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Oct 29, 2026 · Filed, issued, and status dates come from the Department of Building Inspection, which dates each status change.

Housing activity reported to the State

Report year	Project / record	Type	Entitled	Permitted	Completed	Deed-restricted
2023	4199 MISSION ST(2020-004806PRJ)	5+ · Renter	39 (Jul 13, 2023)	—	—	8

Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Oct 26, 2026 · From San Francisco's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.

Zoning & planning

Zoning: NCD: EXCELSIOR OUTER MISSION STREET NEIGHBORHOOD COMMERCIAL DISTRICT code

Source: San Francisco Planning, Zoning Map – Zoning Districts · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Oct 29, 2026

Parcel facts

Lot size: —
Parcel type: Lot
Addresses on parcel: 1

Source: San Francisco Planning / DataSF, Parcels – Active and Retired · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Oct 29, 2026

Official records

Property Information Map
Zoning, permits, planning cases, and assessor data for this lot (SF Planning)
Assessor-Recorder
Look up block/lot 5869/014. Assessed value is not market value.
Property tax payment
Search by block/lot 5869/014 (SF Treasurer & Tax Collector)
DBI permit tracking
Search building permits, complaints, and inspections by address or block/lot
FEMA Flood Map Service Center
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.

This site does not show owner names.

Scenario

Assumptions

Year 1 Rent

Year 1 Cash Flow

Cash-on-Cash

Break-Even Rent

Year 5 Cash Flow

Conservative

−8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth

$3,312/mo

−$4,957/mo

-22.9%

$10,231/mo

−$4,924/mo

Base (your inputs)

Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth

$3,600/mo

−$4,543/mo

-21.0%

$9,470/mo

−$4,306/mo

Optimistic (cap-limited)

+6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.2%/yr rent growth (capped by local ordinance ceiling of 4.2%/yr)

$3,816/mo

−$4,306/mo

-19.9%

$9,250/mo

−$3,878/mo

Report year

Project / record

Type

Entitled

Permitted

Completed

Deed-restricted

2023

4199 MISSION ST(2020-004806PRJ)

5+ · Renter

39 (Jul 13, 2023)

—