San Francisco · Outer Mission · Block/lot 3148/001 · San Francisco
Since October 2024 within ½ mile: 54 homes completed, 14 permitted, 8 proposed or in review (12 of them deed-restricted affordable).
25 projects with a record in this window, grouped by us from permits and State housing reports. Units are as proposed on each project's latest record and counted at its current stage.
768 permits within ½ mile since October 2024
The map shows new construction, ADUs, demolitions, additions, and renovations. Routine systems work (roofs, HVAC, water heaters) is counted but not mapped. Unit counts are as stated on permits.
$1,272,000
Benchmark range: $1,081,000 – $1,463,000
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Geography: permits located by parcel, ½ mile radius · Retrieved Oct 30, 2026
Public-records benchmark estimate combining Zillow Home Value Index (Data provided by Zillow), Census ACS 5-year estimates, parcel land-use/lot characteristics, and issued building permits. Not an official appraisal.
Permit counts, by the date issued (or applied, if not yet issued). Lot splits are planning cases, which we don't have.
We read public zoning and hazard maps against state law (ADUs: Gov. Code 66314; SB 9: Gov. Code 65852.21 and 66411.7). Local rules, title, tenancy history and site conditions can change the answer. Check with San Francisco's planning department before relying on it.
Sources: San Francisco Planning, Zoning Map – Zoning Districts (retrieved Oct 30, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the State Responsibility Area (effective 2024-04-01) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · CAL FIRE Office of the State Fire Marshal, Fire Hazard Severity Zones in the Local Responsibility Area (map dated 2025-03-24) (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — flood hazard zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · FEMA, National Flood Hazard Layer — FIRM panels (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · California Geological Survey, Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones (retrieved Oct 26, 2026) · Zoning classes: our classification of NCD-EXCELSIOR as mixed use, checked against the zone description on Oct 24, 2026
Chronological history of building permit applications and issuances, snapshot-dated status changes, State housing entitlements, surrounding development within ½ mile, and area home-value trends.
In "Applied" for 8.3 yr (since Jul 13, 2018), with no new permit record in 8.3 yr. · 24 units · $5,000,000 declared valuation
In "Entitled" for 3.6 yr (since Mar 23, 2023), with no new permit record in 3.6 yr. · 69 units
Permit issued and active for 5 yr (first record Oct 13, 2021), with no completion or new permit record in 3.7 yr. · 1 unit · $63,653 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 3.5 yr (since Apr 24, 2023), with no new permit record in 3.5 yr. · $1,800 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 3.5 yr (since May 2, 2023), with no new permit record in 3.5 yr. · 1 unit · $80,000 declared valuation
In "Applied" for 3.4 yr (since Jun 23, 2023), with no new permit record in 3.4 yr. · 1 unit · $75,000 declared valuation
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (160 Santa Rosa Av): Status changed from issued to complete
Record 202608066191 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby plumbing / water heater / sewer (1682 Alemany Bl): Status changed from issued to complete
Record 202609027617 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby electrical / panel (801 Excelsior Av): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 202610290075 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby roof replacement (283 Silver Av): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 202610290098 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby windows / doors / siding (801 Avalon Av): Status changed from suspend to cancelled
Record 201810052448 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby plumbing / water heater / sewer (454 Lisbon St): Status changed from issued to cancelled
Record 202605181414 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby windows / doors / siding (237 Onondaga Av): Status changed from issued to complete
Record 202608116398 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby plan revision / deferred submittal (237 Onondaga Av): Status changed from issued to complete
Record 202608186800 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (4788 Mission St): Status changed from issued to complete
Record 202402095627 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (4796 Mission St): Status changed from issued to expired
Record 201708296195 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby repair tied to a housing/code case (4796 Mission St): Status changed from issued to expired
Record 202508072594 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (370 Edinburgh St): Status changed from issued to complete
Record 202608196856 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
Nearby remodel / interior alteration (428 Otsego Av): First appeared in published agency feed
Record 202610239837 · Detected between snapshots
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Snapshot diff within ½ mile
44 Ney St · 1 unit · $110,000 valuation
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
135 Hearst Ave · 1 unit · $240,000 valuation
Records span Sep 8, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026 (1 permit).
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits & HCD APR (grouped project within ½ mile)
Cross-referenced intelligence from our historical development graph—connecting parcels, permits, entity-resolved builders, empirical review-time distributions, and neighborhood renovation trends.
Explore full San Francisco development graph →Active in "Entitled" for 3.6 yr (first record Mar 23, 2023) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.6 yr. High-impact scale (69 housing units, 17 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
Active in "Applied" for 8.3 yr (first record Jul 13, 2018) with no new permit activity recorded in 8.3 yr. High-impact scale (24 housing units, $5,000,000 declared valuation across 2 permits).
Active in "Entitled" for 3.3 yr (first record Jul 13, 2023) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.3 yr. High-impact scale (39 housing units, 8 deed-restricted affordable across 0 permits).
Active in "Entitled" for 2.6 yr (first record Mar 12, 2024) with no new permit activity recorded in 2.6 yr. High-impact scale (8 housing units across 0 permits).
Active in "Issued" for 9.3 yr (first record Jul 13, 2017) with no new permit activity recorded in 3.1 yr. High-impact scale (2 housing units, $848,000 declared valuation across 1 permit).
Active in "Issued" for 3.3 yr (first record Jul 20, 2023) with no new permit activity recorded in 7 mo. High-impact scale (3 housing units, $890,000 declared valuation across 3 permits).
Substantial improvements (additions, interior remodels, ADUs, commercial TI, and new builds) across 5,443 parcels
+9.2% YoY
City baseline: 91.1 / 1k
182 in trailing 24m
Includes 14 ADUs
HUD Metro Fair Market Rent · San Francisco, CA HUD Metro FMR Area
HUD FY 2026 · 40th-percentile gross rentCensus ACS 5-year median gross rent (all bedroom counts combined):
Area home-value benchmarks (not an appraisal)
ZIP & neighborhood mediansUnder California Proposition 13, the seller's historical assessed value does not carry over to a buyer. On sale, the parcel is reassessed at the purchase price: 1.00% base rate ($12,700/yr) + local voter-approved bond debt ($2,286/yr) + fixed direct levies/Mello-Roos ($450/yr).
Insurance & hazard context:
−$61,041/yr
Cash needed: $279,400
NOI: $16,021/yr
P&I: $6,422/mo
For $0/mo net cash flow
At $3,600/mo rent
| Scenario | Assumptions | Year 1 Rent | Year 1 Cash Flow | Cash-on-Cash | Break-Even Rent | Year 5 Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | −8% starting rent, +3% vacancy, +3% combined maintenance/CapEx, 1.5%/yr rent growth | $3,312/mo | −$5,500/mo | -23.6% | $10,990/mo | −$5,475/mo |
| Base (your inputs) | Your entered assumptions, 3.0%/yr rent growth | $3,600/mo | −$5,087/mo | -21.8% | $10,172/mo | −$4,857/mo |
| Optimistic (cap-limited) | +6% starting rent, 3% vacancy, 4.2%/yr rent growth (capped by local ordinance ceiling of 4.2%/yr) | $3,816/mo | −$4,849/mo | -20.8% | $9,936/mo | −$4,429/mo |
Rental regulatory context (informational only — not legal advice):
California AB 1482 (Tenant Protection Act, Civ. Code § 1947.12) caps annual rent increases at 5% + local CPI (max 10%) on covered properties. In San Francisco: San Francisco Rent Ordinance (Admin. Code Ch. 37) — annual allowable increase is 60% of Bay Area CPI (capped at 7%) for covered pre-June 1979 buildings. Official program rules ↗
Entitled69 units17 deed-restrictedMar 23, 2023 – Mar 23, 2023
Applied24 unitsJul 13, 2018 – Jul 13, 2018
We group related permits and State housing reports into projects. That grouping is our inference, not an official record.
reroof about 7500 sq. ft.
demolish 1 story retail building
erect (n) (4) story residential over retail/commercial building
Source: San Francisco Department of Building Inspection, Building Permits · Geography: parcel (APN) · Retrieved Oct 30, 2026 · Filed, issued, and status dates come from the Department of Building Inspection, which dates each status change.
| Report year | Project / record | Type | Entitled | Permitted | Completed | Deed-restricted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4550 MISSION ST(2021-000438PRJ) | 5+ · Renter | 69 (Mar 23, 2023) | — | — | 17 |
Source: California HCD, Housing Element Annual Progress Report — Table A2 · Geography: project (parcel) · Retrieved Oct 26, 2026 · From San Francisco's Housing Element Annual Progress Reports. A project can appear in several report years as it moves from entitlement to permit to completion.
Source: San Francisco Planning, Zoning Map – Zoning Districts · Geography: zoning district polygon at parcel point · Retrieved Oct 30, 2026
4550 MISSION ST
Source: San Francisco Planning / DataSF, Parcels – Active and Retired · Geography: parcel · Retrieved Oct 30, 2026
Zoning, permits, planning cases, and assessor data for this lot (SF Planning)
Look up block/lot 3148/001. Assessed value is not market value.
Search by block/lot 3148/001 (SF Treasurer & Tax Collector)
Search building permits, complaints, and inspections by address or block/lot
The official flood hazard map for this location. Our reading of it is under What could be built here.
This site does not show owner names.